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  • United States: Residual Seasonality in GDP – Mirage or Real?

    United States: Residual Seasonality in GDP – Mirage or Real?

    Once again, U.S. Q1 real GDP growth came in weaker than expected (below the Bloomberg consensus). Real GDP growth is a key input for both public and private sector decision…

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  • Factors Affecting Commodity Prices

    Factors Affecting Commodity Prices

    Factors Affecting Commodity Prices is one of several special surveys we conduct in our monthly Energy and Metals Consensus Forecasts™ publication. Each publication covers over 30 individual commodities with forecasts…

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  • BRIC Outward FDI – the Dragon Will Outpace the Jaguar, the Tiger and the Bear

    BRIC Outward FDI – the Dragon Will Outpace the Jaguar, the Tiger and the Bear

    Economic and financial commentary often focuses on BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) FX reserve accumulation. BRIC outward foreign direct investment typically attracts less attention. While BRIC FDI (foreign direct…

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  • Tariff Race in the 1930s – Subsidy Race Today?

    Tariff Race in the 1930s – Subsidy Race Today?

    As the economic crisis unfolds, some argue that customs duties are much less likely to be increased today than was the case during the Great Depression of 1929-1933. The general…

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News and Articles

Posted on April 12, 2015November 2, 2018

Tumbling Commodity Prices – No Indication of a Recession

One reason for the latest sharp fall in commodity prices is the fear of an economic slump in China. However, up to the end of June at least, China’s demand …

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Posted on February 2, 2015November 2, 2018

Hong Kong Currency Peg Will Remain Intact Despite Growth Concern

Growth Bound to Head Lower in Q4 Hong Kong’s economy is set to face a gloomy outlook: • The ‘Occupy Central’ protests have not ended. The retail sector and food/beverage …

Continue reading “Hong Kong Currency Peg Will Remain Intact Despite Growth Concern”

Posted on April 23, 2013November 2, 2018

UK (2013): Thatcher’s Economic Legacy

Following the death of Margaret Thatcher on April 8, Britain’s first female prime minister and the longest serving in over 150 years, we take a look at her legacy and …

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Posted on April 23, 2013November 2, 2018

Portugal (2013): Caught Between Court and Troika

Government Taking Refuge in Saving Promises Constitutional Court Stops Part of the Austerity Package Within the scope of the EUR 78bn rescue package granted by the troika [made up of …

Continue reading “Portugal (2013): Caught Between Court and Troika”

Posted on April 23, 2013November 2, 2018

Challenges Confronting the Bank of Japan’s Attempted Reflation (2013)

Markets are too aggressively assuming that the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) latest attempt at reflating the Japanese economy will succeed.  The Bank of Japan’s aggressive monetary easing faces numerous hurdles …

Continue reading “Challenges Confronting the Bank of Japan’s Attempted Reflation (2013)”

Posted on March 27, 2013November 2, 2018

India (2013): Pragmatic Budget, Tough to Meet

The federal budget FY13/14 tabled on February 28, 2013 was pragmatic and balanced, though meeting the targets will depend on recovery in growth, conducive external markets and a political will …

Continue reading “India (2013): Pragmatic Budget, Tough to Meet”

Posted on March 27, 2013November 2, 2018

UK (2013): Budget – Fiscal Slippage and Monetary Flexibility

– The Budget confirms that the UK’s fiscal position is worse than the OBR’s previous outlook, both in cash terms and structural terms. The Chancellor has not sought to offset …

Continue reading “UK (2013): Budget – Fiscal Slippage and Monetary Flexibility”

Posted on March 27, 2013November 2, 2018

Why Gold’s Lustre Will Fade (2013)

It’s been a glorious run. The gold price climbed by nearly 500% from 2002 to present, making it one of the best performing assets. But already, many of the forces …

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Posted on February 27, 2013November 2, 2018

UK (2013): The Economic Issues Surrounding an EU Exit

Prime Minister David Cameron’s commitment to hold a referendum on the UK’s EU membership by 2017 has thrust the issue into the limelight. Here we focus mainly on the likely …

Continue reading “UK (2013): The Economic Issues Surrounding an EU Exit”

Posted on February 27, 2013November 30, 2018

Venezuela (2013): No Surprise, No Relief

While the precise timing of Venezuela’s move to devalue the bolivar fuerte from 4.290 to 6.292 was unknown, the move had long been anticipated by Venezuela watchers as well as …

Continue reading “Venezuela (2013): No Surprise, No Relief”

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Special Surveys in February include Trends in Productivity and Wages (CF and CF-USA) and Economic Policy Evaluation (LACF).
In March we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe and Asia Pacific economies.
In April we poll for Long-Term 5-10 year forecasts in each of our four regional publications.
The April edition of Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts includes a Special Analysis of Seasonal Commodity Price Patterns.
In June we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies.
In our July surveys, we evaluate global monetary and fiscal policy conditions and assess likely policy directions over the next 12 months.
The August edition of Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts will feature a Special Survey on Factors Affecting Commodity Prices.
In September we poll for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe and Asia Pacific economies.
In October we survey for Long-Term 5-10 year forecasts for the G7, Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe and Latin American economies.
Our November publications focus on Real Interest Rates and Corporate Profits forecasts in the G7 and Western Europe, as well as FDI in Asia Pacific.
In December we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies.
In January, Consensus Economics surveys panellists for their 2021 and 2022 forecasts, as well as the risks associated with non-consensus outcomes.
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