Research Bibliography & Econometric Modelling

Research Bibliography

The following list contains research articles that explore the topics of economic forecasting, forecast accuracy and the use of forecasts in economic and financial markets research.

An, Z., J.T. Jalles & P. Loungani (2018) “How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? “, IMF Working Paper – WP/18/39.

Armstrong, J.S. (2001) “Combining Forecasts”, in Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers. 417-439.

Batchelor, R. & P. Dua (1995) “Forecaster Diversity and the Benefits of Combining Forecasts”, Management Science, 41, 68-75.

Batchelor, R. (2000) “The IMF and OECD versus Consensus Forecasts”, Applied Economics, 33 (2), 225-235.

Bates, J.M. & C.W.J Granger (1969) “The Combination of Forecasts”, Operational Research Quarterly, 20, 451-468.

Blix, M., J. Wadefjord, U. Wienecke & M. Adahl (2001) “How good is the forecasting performance of major institutions?”, Economic Review of the Riksbank, 3, 38-68.

Brooks, J. (2017) “A Half Century of Macro Momentum”, AQR Capital Management, White Papers.

Cimadomo, J., P. Claeys & M. Poplawski-Ribeiro (2016) “How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?”, IMF Working Paper.

Clemen, R.T. (1989) “Combining Forecasts: A Review and Annotated Bibliography”, International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 559-583.

Clemen, R.T. and R.L. Winkler (1986) “Combining Economic Forecasts”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 4 (1) 39-46.

Clements, M.P. & D.F. Hendry (1998) Forecasting Economic Time Series. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Elliott, G., C.W.J. Granger & A. Timmermann (2006) Handbook of Economic Forecasting. Amsterdam: North-Holland.

Genberg, H. & A. Martinez (2014) “On the accuracy and efficiency of IMF Forecasts: A Survey and Some Extensions”, IEO Background Paper.

Graham, J.R. (1996) “Is a Group of Economists Better Than One?” Journal of Business, 69 (2), 193-232.

Hawkins, J. (2002) “Cassandra and the Sirens: Economic Forecasting in Emerging Economies”, IFC Conference – Bank of International Settlements, Basle, 13.

Hendry D.F. & N.R. Ericsson (2003) Understanding Economic Forecasts. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.

Jones, R.C. (2014) “Making Better Investment Decisions”, The Journal of Portfolio Management, 40 (2), 128-143.

Kacapyr, E. (1996) “Consensus Forecasts”, in Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe. 141-153.

Lawrence, M.J., R.H. Edmundson & M.J. O’Connor (1986) “The Accuracy of Combining Judgmental and Statistical Forecasts”, Management Science, 32, 1521-1532.

McNees, S.K. (1987) “Consensus Forecasts: Tyranny of the Majority?”, New England Economic Review, Nov/Dec, 15-21.

Novotny, F. & M. Rakova (2010) “Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective, Working Paper Series, 14.

Winkler, R.L. (1989) “Combining Forecasts: A Philosophical Basis and Some Current Issues”, International Journal of Forecasting, 5 (4), 605-609.

Zarnowitz, V. (1984) “The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys”, Journal of Forecasting, 3, 11-26.

Zarnowitz, V. & P. Braun (1992) “Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance”, NBER Working Paper, No. 3965.

Econometric Consensus Modelling Research

Consensus Economics has monitored research projects involving economic forecast data for some years. This work was intensified in 2004 and 2005 when in-house studies were undertaken of the academic literature on forecasting, the behaviour of forecasters during the forecast cycle and the responses of forecasters to our survey methodology. Using our database of historical forecast data collected since 1989 we also investigated the characteristics of this data to determine whether the accuracy of Consensus Forecasts™ could be statistically improved.

This research has led to the development of an Econometric Adjusted Consensus (EAC) which we are using in our analysis. For further information about the EAC and a discussion of its advantages, Excel Spreadsheet subscribers should contact us on Tel: + 44 (20) 7491 3211.