The following list contains quotes from research that highlights the accuracy of consensus economic forecasting, current use cases of consensus economic surveys and some recent feedback from our clients regarding our products.
Research evidence
“At least since the publication of “The Combination of Forecasts” (Bates and Granger [1969]), economists have known that combining forecasts from different sources can both improve accuracy and reduce forecaster error. In the intervening years, numerous studies have confirmed these conclusions, outlined conditions under which forecast combinations are most effective, and tried to explain why simple equal weights work so well relative to more sophisticated statistical techniques.”
“Consensus Forecasts tend to be more accurate than IMF forecasts in a larger proportion of countries in our sample group. For instance, by October of the year before the recession (forecast horizon = 15 months), Consensus Forecasts are more accurate for 47 countries, and 14 of them are significant, in contrast, IMF forecasts are more accurate for 16 countries, and significant for only 3 countries. For current-year forecasts, Consensus forecasts are again more accurate for a larger proportion of countries.”
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia – Website, February 2025.
“Inflation expectations are commonly gauged in two ways – from expected inflation rates implied in market interest rates and from surveys of economists or consumers. Through all measures of expected inflation are imperfect, measured of expected inflation based on surveys of economists have been found to be generally superior to market-based measures.”
Scott Armstrong – Principles of Forecasting, 2002, Page 417 Chapter Combining Forecasts.
“To improve forecasting accuracy, combine forecasts derived from methods that differ substantially and draw from different sources of information”.
“Although all inflation expectations measures provide some information about future inflation, professional forecasters have been the most accurate in predicting future inflation, while market-implied and consumer measures have tended to be less so.”
“Consensus Economics has a good track record compared to forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (An et. Al., 2018) which is in line with the evidence that the combination of forecasts can reduce the forecast error compared to individual forecasts (Bates and Granger, 1969).”
Institutional feedback
Email From Senior Lead Economist. March 2026. European Union Institution.
“I have full appreciation and respect for Consensus. It has been going on for 37 years now but still innovates (monthly inflation profile, continuous consensus forecast, etc.). I use it regularly in my day-today analysis and assessment work but also for more substantial analytical/research work.”