What are Consensus Forecasts?
A consensus forecast combines independent forecasts from a group of professional economists into one benchmark view of the outlook.
Many professional views. One comparable benchmark.
Economic forecasts are estimates of future outcomes based on current data, expected conditions, models and professional judgement. A consensus forecast is the arithmetic mean of a collection of those individual forecasts.
Rather than relying on one house view, the consensus summarises the centre of a broader distribution of professional expectations.
A broader view can be more useful than picking a single forecaster.
Academic and central-bank research has long examined the benefits of combining expert forecasts rather than relying on one estimate.
Reduce individual error
Any single forecast can contain model, judgement or data errors. Combining forecasts can reduce the influence of individual mistakes and extreme outliers.
Create a stable benchmark
The consensus provides a consistent reference point for comparing internal views, market expectations and changes in sentiment through time.
Avoid choosing the next winner
Some forecasters will outperform in any given year, but the top performer tends to change. It is difficult to identify the future winner in advance.
Forecast combinations have a long research history.
Research including Bates & Granger (1969), Zarnowitz (1984), Batchelor (2000) and Novotny & Rakova (2010) examines the performance of combined forecasts and consensus survey data.
The recurring conclusion is not that the consensus wins every period. It is that combining professional forecasts can provide a robust benchmark over time and reduce dependence on any one forecaster.
Explore the research bibliography
The quality of the consensus depends on who is surveyed, how the survey is run, and how carefully the data are preserved.
A useful consensus is more than an arithmetic mean. Panel selection, survey timing, definitions, data review and continuity all affect whether the result is genuinely comparable and useful through time.
-
1
Select and vet the panellists
Panellists are vetted before inclusion and each panel is deliberately maintained over time to provide a credible cross-section of professional forecasting views.
-
2
Collect on a deliberately consistent timetable
Forecasts are gathered using stable survey dates, definitions and horizons so successive survey rounds remain meaningfully comparable.
-
3
Review and standardise submissions
Our economists carefully review responses for completeness, consistency and apparent data issues before the survey is published.
-
4
Calculate the consensus and retain the detail
Individual estimates are combined to produce the mean, high and low forecasts and other measures, while the underlying institutional forecasts remain visible to subscribers.
-
5
Carefully preserve the historical databases
Each consensus survey is preserved as part of the historical record so users can reconstruct what forecasters believed at the time and perform proper point-in-time analysis.
-
6
Deliver the data for real workflows
The same disciplined survey process is available through forecast reports, structured Excel files, API delivery and the historical databank.
A benchmark, not a promise.
Consensus forecasts are not intended to imply certainty. Economic forecasting remains an inexact science. Their value is as a transparent benchmark for professional expectations that can be compared across time, markets and internal scenarios.
Why institutions use Consensus EconomicsUseful for benchmarking internal economic and market assumptions.
Useful for tracking change in expectations between survey periods.
Useful for context because individual forecasts show the range around the mean.
A common reference point across investment, policy and planning.
Questions about how the consensus works
Why use a consensus rather than a single forecast?
A single forecast reflects one institution's assumptions and model. A consensus combines a broader panel of professional views to provide an independent benchmark and reduce dependence on any one forecaster.
How are panellists selected?
Panellists are vetted before inclusion and panels are deliberately maintained over time to provide a credible cross-section of professional forecasting views.
Can I see the individual forecasts behind the consensus?
Yes. The individual forecasts remain visible to subscribers, allowing users to examine the distribution around the mean, identify outliers and measure disagreement.
Why does historical continuity matter?
Carefully preserved historical survey databases make it possible to reconstruct what forecasters believed at the time and compare expectations consistently through different economic cycles.
Explore the forecasts behind the consensus.
See how the consensus is presented in a full sample report, then order the forecast service you need.
