A Balanced Approach

For several decades, journalists and researchers have been collecting and combining economic and financial forecasts using surveys. For our Consensus Forecasts™ publications we ask the world’s leading forecasters for their predictions for more than 1,000 variables from over 100 nations in Industrialised Countries, Eastern Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America. Incoming survey responses are then processed using proprietary software and checked for accuracy, completeness and integrity. For the principal countries covered, our publications show the estimates of individual panellists for each economic indicator, along with the mean average.

The table below shows a small sample of the data from Consensus Forecasts™ for the United States (in this case, from our January 8, 2018 survey).

Forecasters For
The United States
Gross Domestic Product Consumer Price Inflation
% change over previous year 2018 2019 2018 2019
Robert Fry Economics 3.3 3.1 2.0 2.2
Georgia State University 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.5
First Trust Advisors 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.6
Moody’s Analytics 2.9 2.2 2.4 2.7
The Conference Board 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.3
FedEx Corporation 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.2
Oxford Economics 2.8 2.0 2.1 1.8
Standard & Poor’s 2.8 2.2 2.2 1.9
Fannie Mae 2.8 2.5 2.0 2.0
Bank of America – Merrill 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.9
PNC Financial Services 2.7 2.1 1.9 2.0
Barclays 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.0
Goldman Sachs 2.7 2.1 2.3 1.9
Wells Capital Mgmt 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.5
Wells Fargo 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.1
RDQ Economics 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.3
Citigroup 2.7 2.4 2.0 2.3
General Motors 2.7 2.5 1.7 1.9
Macroeconomic Advisers 2.7 2.5 1.7 1.9
Inforum – Univ of Maryland 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.2
Univ of Michigan – RSQE 2.6 2.3 2.2 1.9
Nat Assn of Home Builders 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.3
Ford Motor Company 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0
Swiss Re 2.5 2.0 2.3 2.2
JP Morgan 2.4 1.8 2.3 2.3
HSBC 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9
Eaton Corporation 2.3 2.3 1.8 1.8
Econ Intelligence Unit 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.3
Consensus (Average) 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.1
Last Month’s Mean 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2
3 Months Ago 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.2
High 3.3 3.1 2.5 2.7
Low 2.3 1.8 1.7 1.8
Standard Deviation 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2