Consensus Economics, beginning with its first survey in October 1989, has never missed a survey date. The objectives of consistency and comprehensiveness, which we have emphasised since that time, have resulted in our rigorous survey methodologies. We believe these standards of accuracy, which are appreciated by our clients, are the highest of our field. Comments by institutional investor clients have encouraged us to broaden our range of products, variables and data options over time to meet their requirements.
Investors use Consensus Forecasts not only to benchmark current expectations, but to anticipate changes. A valuation approach which does not take into account changing macro trends will not generate alpha on a sustained basis. Consensus Forecasts have an excellent record of statistical accuracy when compared with other forecasts. Please call or email us to request further examples of research on the use of consensus data in investment management.
Most institutions find the Historical Data with Monthly Updates from our four regional services to be useful in their research and modelling. These four services include the consensus mean, high, low and standard deviation, plus the individual forecasts for all variables covered for:
Consensus Forecasts™ – G-7 & Western Europe – Monthly since October 1989;
Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts™ – Monthly since January 1995;
Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts™ – Bi-monthly (alternate months) between May 1998 and April 2007 and monthly thereafter; and
Latin American Consensus Forecasts™ – Bi-monthly (alternate months) between March 1993 and April 2001 and monthly thereafter.
A flexible TrendCharts feature enabling easy graphic display of the trends in our Consensus Forecasts™ over time has been added to each of the four regional spreadsheet services beginning in late 2006.
Supplemental Products – Complete Descriptions Available upon Request
Continuous Consensus Forecasts™ (CCF) – Since November 2010 Consensus Economics has collected changes to economic forecasts made between our monthly survey dates. These forecast revisions, when combined with monthly survey data have resulted in more up-to-date estimates of the outlook. Back-testing of CCF data from the four regional modules has revealed significant improvements to forecast accuracy from these higher frequency data. Please call or email us to request details and pricing.
Long-Term Historical Forecast Data – Since 1989, Consensus Economics has been surveying for longer term 5-10 year macroeconomic forecasts, generally twice a year in April and October (now increased to four times each year). Long-term growth, inflation and interest rate expectations have become increasingly important in institutional research. These survey results are available in user friendly Excel format for all four of our regional modules. Please call or email us to request details and pricing.
Quarterly Forecast Data – Since 1989, Consensus Economics has been surveying for quarter-by-quarter macroeconomic forecasts, generally four times each year in March, June, September and December. These numerical forecasts, covering only the major countries of the Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe module have now been databased in a user friendly Excel format. Please call or email us to request details and pricing.
Occasionally, our institutional clients have subscribed to Energy and Metals Consensus Forecasts and Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts as ancillary products to their quantitative analysis work.
Research on Consensus Forecasts™ – A number of substantial academic and central bank research studies have been undertaken on the accuracy of Consensus Forecasts™. Several of these are referenced in the “How Accurate” section of this website or in the “Bibliography“ section. In addition, several investment bank research groups have completed studies on the usefulness of Consensus Forecasts™ in investment decision making. Please call or email us to request examples.
Consensus Forecasts™ on Electronic Research Platforms – Substantial databases of Consensus Economics historical forecast data are available as premium services on Thomson Reuters Datastream, on FactSet and on the Macrobond electronic research platforms. For further information about these services, please contact Consensus Economics.