With vast technological change afoot, why are long-term growth forecasts becoming more pessimistic? M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara Over the past decade, the implications of recent technological …
Greek Exit: The Cost For Europe
We published a piece before the Greek election to voice our concern on the situation (see “Greece, be worried, be very worried” May 2, 2012). The result of the election …
Trump Triumph – Challenges to Asia’s Markets
Trump’s Win Brings Uncertainty to Asia Although the initial risk-off moves in financial markets in response to Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election have reversed, there is still …
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Philippines: Staying Strong
We have revised our 2016 GDP growth forecast to 6.6% from 6.3% previously. Growth may moderate going forward, as the May election effect fades. Nevertheless, domestic demand should continue to …
Canada: Wildfires Pull Down 2016 Growth
2016 started with a bang, as a surge in exports and residential investment led the way to a 2.4% expansion (annualized) in the first quarter. Unfortunately, both fleeting momentum at …
United States: Residual Seasonality in GDP – Mirage or Real?
Once again, U.S. Q1 real GDP growth came in weaker than expected (below the Bloomberg consensus). Real GDP growth is a key input for both public and private sector decision …
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Indonesia: The Approach of Policy Constraints?
Visibility on the key policy parameters of the Indonesian economy is starting to fade as we move into mid-year. Although we are relatively confident in our below consensus growth and above …
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Factors Affecting Commodity Prices
Factors Affecting Commodity Prices is one of several special surveys we conduct in our monthly Energy and Metals Consensus Forecasts™ publication. Each publication covers over 30 individual commodities with forecasts …
Brexit Scenarios
Outcome of Referendum is Highly Uncertain The UK will hold a referendum on whether to remain in the EU on 23 June. There is a high level of uncertainty about …
Commodity Outlook – Is it Safe to Get Back in the Water?
The sharks have been circling commodity markets for a while now, with large bites taken out of the prices of oil and many metals. However, commodity markets often overshoot, and …
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