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  • United States: Residual Seasonality in GDP – Mirage or Real?

    United States: Residual Seasonality in GDP – Mirage or Real?

    Once again, U.S. Q1 real GDP growth came in weaker than expected (below the Bloomberg consensus). Real GDP growth is a key input for both public and private sector decision…

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  • Factors Affecting Commodity Prices

    Factors Affecting Commodity Prices

    Factors Affecting Commodity Prices is one of several special surveys we conduct in our monthly Energy and Metals Consensus Forecasts™ publication. Each publication covers over 30 individual commodities with forecasts…

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  • BRIC Outward FDI – the Dragon Will Outpace the Jaguar, the Tiger and the Bear

    BRIC Outward FDI – the Dragon Will Outpace the Jaguar, the Tiger and the Bear

    Economic and financial commentary often focuses on BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) FX reserve accumulation. BRIC outward foreign direct investment typically attracts less attention. While BRIC FDI (foreign direct…

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  • Tariff Race in the 1930s – Subsidy Race Today?

    Tariff Race in the 1930s – Subsidy Race Today?

    As the economic crisis unfolds, some argue that customs duties are much less likely to be increased today than was the case during the Great Depression of 1929-1933. The general…

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News and Articles

Posted on June 20, 2020March 23, 2021

Real GDP Stuck Below Pre-Crisis Levels Until 2022

The two charts below – taken from our June 2020 G7 and Western Europe Consensus Forecasts report – endeavour to show how quickly selected economies are forecast to restore output …

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Posted on October 3, 2019October 3, 2019

Factors Affecting Exchange Rates

Originally published in August 2019’s issue of Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts.  The unabridged article and a recent sample issue are available to industry professionals. Simply send us an email at editors@consensuseconomics.com In …

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Posted on September 27, 2019October 3, 2019

Factors Affecting Commodity Prices

Originally published in August 2019’s issue of Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts. The unabridged article and a recent sample issue are available to industry professionals. Simply send us an email at editors@consensuseconomics.com …

Continue reading “Factors Affecting Commodity Prices”

Posted on September 27, 2019October 3, 2019

Seasonal Currency Patterns

Originally published in April 2019’s issue of Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts. The unabridged article and a recent sample issue are available to industry professionals. Simply send us an email at editors@consensuseconomics.com Like many …

Continue reading “Seasonal Currency Patterns”

Posted on September 26, 2019October 3, 2019

Seasonal Price Patterns

Originally published in April 2019’s issue of Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts. The unabridged article and a recent sample issue are available to industry professionals. Simply send us an email at editors@consensuseconomics.com Like …

Continue reading “Seasonal Price Patterns”

Posted on September 26, 2019October 3, 2019

Currency Correlations

Originally published in September 2019’s issue of Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts. The unabridged article and a recent sample issue are available to industry professionals. Simply send us an email at editors@consensuseconomics.com Historical …

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Posted on September 25, 2019September 25, 2019

Turkey – Economy Supported By Rate Cuts

Originally published in Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts: September Survey of Professional Forecasters. To request access to the full publication, and see the complete set of survey results, please contact editors@consensuseconomics.com …

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Posted on September 25, 2019September 25, 2019

Argentina – Economists Adjust their Forecasts after Peso Freefall

Originally published in Latin American Consensus Forecasts: September Survey of Professional Forecasters. To request access to the full publication, and see the complete set of survey results, please contact editors@consensuseconomics.com or …

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Posted on March 29, 2019

The Growth Forecast Puzzle

With vast technological change afoot, why are long-term growth forecasts becoming more pessimistic? M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara Over the past decade, the implications of recent technological …

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Posted on October 1, 2018November 2, 2018

Greek Exit: The Cost For Europe

We published a piece before the Greek election to voice our concern on the situation (see “Greece, be worried, be very worried” May 2, 2012). The result of the election …

Continue reading “Greek Exit: The Cost For Europe”

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  • Consensus Forecasts™ – USA
  • Current Economics – Non-Academic Journal

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Forthcoming>>

Special Surveys in February include Trends in Productivity and Wages (CF and CF-USA) and Economic Policy Evaluation (LACF).
In March we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe and Asia Pacific economies.
In April we poll for Long-Term 5-10 year forecasts in each of our four regional publications.
The April edition of Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts includes a Special Analysis of Seasonal Commodity Price Patterns.
In June we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies.
In our July surveys, we evaluate global monetary and fiscal policy conditions and assess likely policy directions over the next 12 months.
The August edition of Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts will feature a Special Survey on Factors Affecting Commodity Prices.
In September we poll for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe and Asia Pacific economies.
In October we survey for Long-Term 5-10 year forecasts for the G7, Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe and Latin American economies.
Our November publications focus on Real Interest Rates and Corporate Profits forecasts in the G7 and Western Europe, as well as FDI in Asia Pacific.
In December we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies.
In January, Consensus Economics surveys panellists for their 2021 and 2022 forecasts, as well as the risks associated with non-consensus outcomes.
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