The Economy Shows Initial Signs of Stabilization. Following the sharp decline in 1H15, we saw the first signs of economic stabilization in 2H15 as real GDP dynamics improved modestly (y-o-y) in …
Continue reading “Russia: Russia’s Economy to Return to Growth in 2017 Provided No Further Shocks”
The global economy has disappointed again in 2015, growing less than expected. In contrast to previous years, emerging economies have been the main culprit, while Europe has performed in line …
Continue reading “Global Outlook – Cautious Optimism Warranted”
Macroeconomic performance across the Asian region continues to evolve, upending some long-held preconceptions in the process. The most dramatic shift has been the introduction of India’s revised national accounts, which …
Continue reading “Asia – Changing of the Guard From China to India”
One reason for the latest sharp fall in commodity prices is the fear of an economic slump in China. However, up to the end of June at least, China’s demand …
Continue reading “Tumbling Commodity Prices – No Indication of a Recession”
Growth Bound to Head Lower in Q4 Hong Kong’s economy is set to face a gloomy outlook: • The ‘Occupy Central’ protests have not ended. The retail sector and food/beverage …
Continue reading “Hong Kong Currency Peg Will Remain Intact Despite Growth Concern”
Following the death of Margaret Thatcher on April 8, Britain’s first female prime minister and the longest serving in over 150 years, we take a look at her legacy and …
Government Taking Refuge in Saving Promises Constitutional Court Stops Part of the Austerity Package Within the scope of the EUR 78bn rescue package granted by the troika [made up of …
Continue reading “Portugal (2013): Caught Between Court and Troika”
Markets are too aggressively assuming that the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) latest attempt at reflating the Japanese economy will succeed. The Bank of Japan’s aggressive monetary easing faces numerous hurdles …
Continue reading “Challenges Confronting the Bank of Japan’s Attempted Reflation (2013)”
The federal budget FY13/14 tabled on February 28, 2013 was pragmatic and balanced, though meeting the targets will depend on recovery in growth, conducive external markets and a political will …
Continue reading “India (2013): Pragmatic Budget, Tough to Meet”
– The Budget confirms that the UK’s fiscal position is worse than the OBR’s previous outlook, both in cash terms and structural terms. The Chancellor has not sought to offset …
Continue reading “UK (2013): Budget – Fiscal Slippage and Monetary Flexibility”