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  • United States: Residual Seasonality in GDP – Mirage or Real?

    United States: Residual Seasonality in GDP – Mirage or Real?

    Once again, U.S. Q1 real GDP growth came in weaker than expected (below the Bloomberg consensus). Real GDP growth is a key input for both public and private sector decision…

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  • Factors Affecting Commodity Prices

    Factors Affecting Commodity Prices

    Factors Affecting Commodity Prices is one of several special surveys we conduct in our monthly Energy and Metals Consensus Forecasts™ publication. Each publication covers over 30 individual commodities with forecasts…

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  • BRIC Outward FDI – the Dragon Will Outpace the Jaguar, the Tiger and the Bear

    BRIC Outward FDI – the Dragon Will Outpace the Jaguar, the Tiger and the Bear

    Economic and financial commentary often focuses on BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) FX reserve accumulation. BRIC outward foreign direct investment typically attracts less attention. While BRIC FDI (foreign direct…

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  • Tariff Race in the 1930s – Subsidy Race Today?

    Tariff Race in the 1930s – Subsidy Race Today?

    As the economic crisis unfolds, some argue that customs duties are much less likely to be increased today than was the case during the Great Depression of 1929-1933. The general…

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News and Articles

Posted on February 10, 2017November 2, 2018

Trump Triumph – Challenges to Asia’s Markets

Trump’s Win Brings Uncertainty to Asia Although the initial risk-off moves in financial markets in response to Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election have reversed, there is still …

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Posted on November 25, 2016November 2, 2018

Philippines: Staying Strong

We have revised our 2016 GDP growth forecast to 6.6% from 6.3% previously. Growth may moderate going forward, as the May election effect fades. Nevertheless, domestic demand should continue to …

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Posted on August 5, 2016November 2, 2018

Canada: Wildfires Pull Down 2016 Growth

2016 started with a bang, as a surge in exports and residential investment led the way to a 2.4% expansion (annualized) in the first quarter. Unfortunately, both fleeting momentum at …

Continue reading “Canada: Wildfires Pull Down 2016 Growth”

Posted on July 8, 2016March 23, 2021

United States: Residual Seasonality in GDP – Mirage or Real?

Once again, U.S. Q1 real GDP growth came in weaker than expected (below the Bloomberg consensus). Real GDP growth is a key input for both public and private sector decision …

Continue reading “United States: Residual Seasonality in GDP – Mirage or Real?”

Posted on May 27, 2016November 2, 2018

Indonesia: The Approach of Policy Constraints?

Visibility on the key policy parameters of the Indonesian economy is starting to fade as we move into mid-year. Although we are relatively confident in our below consensus growth and above …

Continue reading “Indonesia: The Approach of Policy Constraints?”

Posted on April 28, 2016June 27, 2019

Factors Affecting Commodity Prices

Factors Affecting Commodity Prices is one of several special surveys we conduct in our monthly Energy and Metals Consensus Forecasts™ publication. Each publication covers over 30 individual commodities with forecasts …

Continue reading “Factors Affecting Commodity Prices”

Posted on April 28, 2016November 2, 2018

Brexit Scenarios

Outcome of Referendum is Highly Uncertain The UK will hold a referendum on whether to remain in the EU on 23 June. There is a high level of uncertainty about …

Continue reading “Brexit Scenarios”

Posted on March 22, 2016November 2, 2018

Commodity Outlook – Is it Safe to Get Back in the Water?

The sharks have been circling commodity markets for a while now, with large bites taken out of the prices of oil and many metals. However, commodity markets often overshoot, and …

Continue reading “Commodity Outlook – Is it Safe to Get Back in the Water?”

Posted on February 24, 2016November 2, 2018

Russia: Russia’s Economy to Return to Growth in 2017 Provided No Further Shocks

The Economy Shows Initial Signs of Stabilization. Following the sharp decline in 1H15, we saw the first signs of economic stabilization in 2H15 as real GDP dynamics improved modestly (y-o-y) in …

Continue reading “Russia: Russia’s Economy to Return to Growth in 2017 Provided No Further Shocks”

Posted on January 29, 2016November 2, 2018

Global Outlook – Cautious Optimism Warranted

The global economy has disappointed again in 2015, growing less than expected. In contrast to previous years, emerging economies have been the main culprit, while Europe has performed in line …

Continue reading “Global Outlook – Cautious Optimism Warranted”

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  • Current Economics – Non-Academic Journal

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Forthcoming>>

Special Surveys in February include Trends in Productivity and Wages (CF and CF-USA) and Economic Policy Evaluation (LACF).
In March we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe and Asia Pacific economies.
In April we poll for Long-Term 5-10 year forecasts in each of our four regional publications.
The April edition of Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts includes a Special Analysis of Seasonal Commodity Price Patterns.
In June we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies.
In our July surveys, we evaluate global monetary and fiscal policy conditions and assess likely policy directions over the next 12 months.
The August edition of Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts will feature a Special Survey on Factors Affecting Commodity Prices.
In September we poll for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe and Asia Pacific economies.
In October we survey for Long-Term 5-10 year forecasts for the G7, Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe and Latin American economies.
Our November publications focus on Real Interest Rates and Corporate Profits forecasts in the G7 and Western Europe, as well as FDI in Asia Pacific.
In December we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies.
In January, Consensus Economics surveys panellists for their 2021 and 2022 forecasts, as well as the risks associated with non-consensus outcomes.
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