Trump’s Win Brings Uncertainty to Asia Although the initial risk-off moves in financial markets in response to Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election have reversed, there is still …
Continue reading “Trump Triumph – Challenges to Asia’s Markets”
We have revised our 2016 GDP growth forecast to 6.6% from 6.3% previously. Growth may moderate going forward, as the May election effect fades. Nevertheless, domestic demand should continue to …
2016 started with a bang, as a surge in exports and residential investment led the way to a 2.4% expansion (annualized) in the first quarter. Unfortunately, both fleeting momentum at …
Once again, U.S. Q1 real GDP growth came in weaker than expected (below the Bloomberg consensus). Real GDP growth is a key input for both public and private sector decision …
Continue reading “United States: Residual Seasonality in GDP – Mirage or Real?”
Visibility on the key policy parameters of the Indonesian economy is starting to fade as we move into mid-year. Although we are relatively confident in our below consensus growth and above …
Continue reading “Indonesia: The Approach of Policy Constraints?”
Factors Affecting Commodity Prices is one of several special surveys we conduct in our monthly Energy and Metals Consensus Forecasts™ publication. Each publication covers over 30 individual commodities with forecasts …
Outcome of Referendum is Highly Uncertain The UK will hold a referendum on whether to remain in the EU on 23 June. There is a high level of uncertainty about …
The sharks have been circling commodity markets for a while now, with large bites taken out of the prices of oil and many metals. However, commodity markets often overshoot, and …
Continue reading “Commodity Outlook – Is it Safe to Get Back in the Water?”
The Economy Shows Initial Signs of Stabilization. Following the sharp decline in 1H15, we saw the first signs of economic stabilization in 2H15 as real GDP dynamics improved modestly (y-o-y) in …
Continue reading “Russia: Russia’s Economy to Return to Growth in 2017 Provided No Further Shocks”
The global economy has disappointed again in 2015, growing less than expected. In contrast to previous years, emerging economies have been the main culprit, while Europe has performed in line …
Continue reading “Global Outlook – Cautious Optimism Warranted”