United States

Nominal GDP for the United States was US$22,996bn in 2021, down from US$20,937bn in 2020. The United States population was estimated at 337.0m in 2021 according to the IMF, while China is the United States’ biggest trading partner.

Variables Surveyed for the United States

Variables covered in our monthly analysis of the United States include:

  • Gross Domestic Product
  • Private Consumption
  • Gross Fixed Investment
  • Pre-tax Corporate Profits
  • Industrial Production
  • Consumer Prices (CPI)
  • Core PCE Prices
  • Producer Prices
  • Employment Costs
  • Auto & Light Truck Sales
  • Housing Starts
  • Unemployment Rate
  • Current Account
  • Federal Budget Balance
  • Interest rates
  • Monetary Policy Evaluation
  • Dollar Currency Forecasts

Consensus Forecasts for the United States

Individual panellist forecasts are shown for each of the variables surveyed, along with the consensus (mean) forecast. The rows of forecasts are ranked by the GDP growth estimate for the current year, highest to lowest. In the hard copy and pdf version of the publication, we also show selected “comparison forecasters”  including the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), IMF and OECD. The table below shows a small example set of forecasts for GDP growth and Consumer Prices (CPI), taken from our survey of September 2022.

Source: Conensus Forecasts – G-7 and Western Europe, September 2022

Special Surveys

In addition to the regular surveys for the variables listed above we also undertake a number of Special Surveys for the United States on topics such as:

Main Data Sources for the United States

  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures labor market activity, working conditions, price changes, and productivity in the U.S. economy to support public and private decision making.
  • U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) promotes a better understanding of the U.S. economy by providing the most timely, relevant, and accurate economic accounts data in an objective and cost-effective manner.
  • The Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States.

Comprehensive Forecasts Coverage

Consensus Economics has collected forecasts for more than 30 years, building up a comprehensive catalogue of historical forecasts data. Please enquire at editors@consensuseconomics.com should you wish to find out more about these data offerings, pricing and the different platforms by which you can access them.