This article on Seasonal Currency Patterns was originally published in Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts: April 2026
In addition to our regular monthly surveys of projections for over 90 currencies we occasionally undertake a special analysis on seasonal currency patterns in Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts (in April) for the currencies listed below.
| G7 & Western Europe | Asia Pacific | Eastern Europe | Latin America | Africa |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Dollar | Australian Dollar | Czech Koruna | Chilean Peso | South African Rand |
| Euro | Chinese Renminbi | Hungarian Forint | Colombian Peso | |
| Japanese Yen | Indian Rupee | Polish Zloty | Mexican Peso | |
| UK Pound | Indonesian Rupiah | Israeli Shekel | Peruvian New Sol | |
| Canadian Dollar | Malaysian Ringgit | Turkish Lira | ||
| Danish Krone | New Zealand Dollar | |||
| Norwegian Krone | Philippine Peso | |||
| Swedish Krona | Singapore Dollar | |||
| Swiss Franc | South Korean Won | |||
| Taiwanese Dollar | ||||
| Thai Baht |
Seasonal Currency Patterns Remain Modest for Most Currencies
Consensus Economics, London
Like many other economic variables, exchange rates are sometimes thought to be subject to seasonal influences. These could arise from a number of sources, including dependence on industries which are subject to seasonal swings in demand or supply (tourism and agriculture, for example) and financial effects such as the repatriation of overseas earnings ahead of a financial year end, or remittance flows linked to seasonal migrant workers. In order to identify such patterns (or not), we have adopted a relatively widely used statistical approach, known as X12 ARIMA (developed by the US Census Bureau), to analyse underlying trends. Examining end month data from January 2006 to December 2025, we calculated X12 ARIMA seasonal factors for 36 of the major currencies we cover, which are shown in the table below. These percentage values measure the average deviation of an exchange rate from its trend rate in each month over the past twenty years.
Our long-term historical analysis continues to suggest that seasonal influences on currencies are generally modest, particularly once adjustments are made to account for outlying observations. On average, of the 36 major currencies covered in the table below for 2006-2025, almost all deviated from the trend within a narrow range of plus or minus 1.0%. Updated estimates for the US dollar (based on NYBOT index weights, as explained on page 3) suggest that it has a slight tendency toward weakness in April and July and strength in October and November. In contrast, the euro (which has a significant weight in the NYBOT index) showed the opposite pattern over the same period.
To illustrate the patterns of currencies where seasonal influences appear most significant, we show a selection of them as charts on page 35, where the trend rate is set as 100. The solid blue line represents analyses of the long-term 20 year average (2006-2025). ARIMA outturns for the ten years 2016-2025 (black dotted line) period have also been added to the charts to assess whether traditional patterns of seasonality may have altered as the financial and economic make up of countries evolves over time.
 |