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  • United States: Residual Seasonality in GDP – Mirage or Real?

    United States: Residual Seasonality in GDP – Mirage or Real?

    Once again, U.S. Q1 real GDP growth came in weaker than expected (below the Bloomberg consensus). Real GDP growth is a key input for both public and private sector decision…

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  • Factors Affecting Commodity Prices

    Factors Affecting Commodity Prices

    Factors Affecting Commodity Prices is one of several special surveys we conduct in our monthly Energy and Metals Consensus Forecasts™ publication. Each publication covers over 30 individual commodities with forecasts…

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  • BRIC Outward FDI – the Dragon Will Outpace the Jaguar, the Tiger and the Bear

    BRIC Outward FDI – the Dragon Will Outpace the Jaguar, the Tiger and the Bear

    Economic and financial commentary often focuses on BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) FX reserve accumulation. BRIC outward foreign direct investment typically attracts less attention. While BRIC FDI (foreign direct…

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  • Tariff Race in the 1930s – Subsidy Race Today?

    Tariff Race in the 1930s – Subsidy Race Today?

    As the economic crisis unfolds, some argue that customs duties are much less likely to be increased today than was the case during the Great Depression of 1929-1933. The general…

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News and Articles

Posted on November 21, 2011November 2, 2018

Commodities: Goose with the Golden Eggs

“Gold, though of little use compared with air or water, will exchange for a great quantity of other goods” – David Ricardo Introduction Gold has been among the best performing …

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Posted on October 31, 2011November 2, 2018

A Sino-US Trade War: An Outcome to be Avoided

On October 11 the US Senate passed a bill intended to punish countries (read China) for maintaining “undervalued” domestic currencies. Beijing responded immediately, warning that the bill could spark a …

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Posted on October 14, 2011November 2, 2018

Greek Devaluation: Is It Such a Good Idea?

A number of commentators argue that Greece cannot succeed in its fiscal consolidation because it cannot devalue. The argument is that a fiscal consolidation has a negative effect on domestic …

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Posted on October 7, 2011November 2, 2018

Global Economy: Relapsing into Recession?

Downside risks to global growth have risen markedly. We take a look at the factors which in the past tended to lead to a recession. Since the classical causes do …

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Posted on September 19, 2011November 2, 2018

United States: AmericA

Standard and Poor (S&P) ended a 70-year tradition and stripped the US government of its triple-A credit rating on August 5, claiming the recent deficit-reduction deal doesn’t go far enough …

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Posted on September 5, 2011November 2, 2018

Japanese Yen: Action Against Appreciation

The Ministry of Finance (MoF) conducted a unilateral Japanese yen (JPY)-selling intervention on August 4. The size of the operation was undisclosed, but the US$/JPY rose from 77 immediately before …

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Posted on August 18, 2011November 2, 2018

Consensus Forecasts of Government Budget Deficits

Many of our panellists, including those outside the Euro zone, have cited the Euro area’s sovereign debt crisis as a major downside factor affecting their forecasts (see page 29). Consequently, …

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Posted on August 5, 2011November 2, 2018

Greece: More Problems Lie Ahead

If all goes according to plan, the Greek parliament’s approval of new austerity measures at the end of June, followed by the euro area’s disbursement of the fifth tranche of …

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Posted on July 22, 2011November 2, 2018

What Happens if the Renminbi is Floated?

China may liberalise its rigid exchange rate regime sooner than most observers expect. But what will happen if the renminbi is allowed to float freely? In this article, we argue …

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Posted on June 23, 2011November 2, 2018

Greek Debt Restructuring Difficult to Avoid

Greek Debt Restructuring – A Political Decision The question of if, when and how a Greek debt restructuring could take place is a complicated matter. Our projections show that it …

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Special Surveys in February include Trends in Productivity and Wages (CF and CF-USA) and Economic Policy Evaluation (LACF).
In March we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe and Asia Pacific economies.
In April we poll for Long-Term 5-10 year forecasts in each of our four regional publications.
The April edition of Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts includes a Special Analysis of Seasonal Commodity Price Patterns.
In June we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies.
In our July surveys, we evaluate global monetary and fiscal policy conditions and assess likely policy directions over the next 12 months.
The August edition of Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts will feature a Special Survey on Factors Affecting Commodity Prices.
In September we poll for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe and Asia Pacific economies.
In October we survey for Long-Term 5-10 year forecasts for the G7, Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe and Latin American economies.
Our November publications focus on Real Interest Rates and Corporate Profits forecasts in the G7 and Western Europe, as well as FDI in Asia Pacific.
In December we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies.
In January, Consensus Economics surveys panellists for their 2021 and 2022 forecasts, as well as the risks associated with non-consensus outcomes.
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