If all goes according to plan, the Greek parliament’s approval of new austerity measures at the end of June, followed by the euro area’s disbursement of the fifth tranche of …
What Happens if the Renminbi is Floated?
China may liberalise its rigid exchange rate regime sooner than most observers expect. But what will happen if the renminbi is allowed to float freely? In this article, we argue …
Greek Debt Restructuring Difficult to Avoid
Greek Debt Restructuring – A Political Decision The question of if, when and how a Greek debt restructuring could take place is a complicated matter. Our projections show that it …
Continue reading “Greek Debt Restructuring Difficult to Avoid”
G7 Long-Term Forecasts
This month, we explore Significant Changes in Long-Term Forecast Trends for GDP and Inflation for the US, Japan, Germany, France, the UK and Canada. Long-term projections for the 6-10 year …
Are ECB Rate Hikes Going to Finish Off the Periphery?
Peripheral Impact of Rate Hikes – Forget About the Textbooks? An increase in short-term interest rates affects the real economy in many different ways, with the final impact on each …
Continue reading “Are ECB Rate Hikes Going to Finish Off the Periphery?”
Emerging Economies – Risks of Overheating
Emerging Asia and Latin America continues to lead the global recovery and the decouple from advanced G7 economies (discussed in detail in the second section). In both regions domestic demand …
Continue reading “Emerging Economies – Risks of Overheating”
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region – 2011 A Year of Political Turmoil
The revolution that toppled the regime of former Tunisian President Ben Ali after 23 years in power has led to unprecedented ripple effects across the Middle East and North Africa …
Continue reading “Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region – 2011 A Year of Political Turmoil”
UK – CPI Inflation Overshoots Yet Again
The CPI rose 1.0% (m-o-m) in December, a record m-o-m gain, lifting the y-o-y rate to 3.7% from 3.3% in November and 3.2% in October. We expected 3.2% (y-o-y) for …
Are the CEE Countries Better Credits Than the EMU Periphery?
Once the financial crisis broke out in 2008, investors immediately sold their emerging market (EM) assets since this segment traditionally was considered as one that used to suffer most from …
Continue reading “Are the CEE Countries Better Credits Than the EMU Periphery?”
South Africa: A Miracle, But It Has to Do Better
South Africa has confounded the doomsayers of 1994 – both those who predicted that the black majority’s accession to power would lead to economic and institutional decay in very short …
Continue reading “South Africa: A Miracle, But It Has to Do Better”