China may liberalise its rigid exchange rate regime sooner than most observers expect. But what will happen if the renminbi is allowed to float freely? In this article, we argue …
Greek Debt Restructuring Difficult to Avoid
Greek Debt Restructuring – A Political Decision The question of if, when and how a Greek debt restructuring could take place is a complicated matter. Our projections show that it …
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G7 Long-Term Forecasts
This month, we explore Significant Changes in Long-Term Forecast Trends for GDP and Inflation for the US, Japan, Germany, France, the UK and Canada. Long-term projections for the 6-10 year …
Are ECB Rate Hikes Going to Finish Off the Periphery?
Peripheral Impact of Rate Hikes – Forget About the Textbooks? An increase in short-term interest rates affects the real economy in many different ways, with the final impact on each …
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Emerging Economies – Risks of Overheating
Emerging Asia and Latin America continues to lead the global recovery and the decouple from advanced G7 economies (discussed in detail in the second section). In both regions domestic demand …
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Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region – 2011 A Year of Political Turmoil
The revolution that toppled the regime of former Tunisian President Ben Ali after 23 years in power has led to unprecedented ripple effects across the Middle East and North Africa …
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UK – CPI Inflation Overshoots Yet Again
The CPI rose 1.0% (m-o-m) in December, a record m-o-m gain, lifting the y-o-y rate to 3.7% from 3.3% in November and 3.2% in October. We expected 3.2% (y-o-y) for …
Are the CEE Countries Better Credits Than the EMU Periphery?
Once the financial crisis broke out in 2008, investors immediately sold their emerging market (EM) assets since this segment traditionally was considered as one that used to suffer most from …
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South Africa: A Miracle, But It Has to Do Better
South Africa has confounded the doomsayers of 1994 – both those who predicted that the black majority’s accession to power would lead to economic and institutional decay in very short …
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Changes in Consensus Growth Forecasts for Japan and Greece
In Japan, 2010 forecasts for GDP growth, business investment and industrial production have risen strongly over the past few months after recent data releases have pointed to a swift turnaround from …
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