There have been significant developments in a number of key areas since the European Union (EU) summit in December: A potential Greek debt default, new consolidation measures in Italy and …
Continue reading “Sovereign Debt Crisis: Where Do We Stand?”
“Gold, though of little use compared with air or water, will exchange for a great quantity of other goods” – David Ricardo Introduction Gold has been among the best performing …
On October 11 the US Senate passed a bill intended to punish countries (read China) for maintaining “undervalued” domestic currencies. Beijing responded immediately, warning that the bill could spark a …
Continue reading “A Sino-US Trade War: An Outcome to be Avoided”
A number of commentators argue that Greece cannot succeed in its fiscal consolidation because it cannot devalue. The argument is that a fiscal consolidation has a negative effect on domestic …
Continue reading “Greek Devaluation: Is It Such a Good Idea?”
Downside risks to global growth have risen markedly. We take a look at the factors which in the past tended to lead to a recession. Since the classical causes do …
Continue reading “Global Economy: Relapsing into Recession?”
Standard and Poor (S&P) ended a 70-year tradition and stripped the US government of its triple-A credit rating on August 5, claiming the recent deficit-reduction deal doesn’t go far enough …
The Ministry of Finance (MoF) conducted a unilateral Japanese yen (JPY)-selling intervention on August 4. The size of the operation was undisclosed, but the US$/JPY rose from 77 immediately before …
Continue reading “Japanese Yen: Action Against Appreciation”
Many of our panellists, including those outside the Euro zone, have cited the Euro area’s sovereign debt crisis as a major downside factor affecting their forecasts (see page 29). Consequently, …
Continue reading “Consensus Forecasts of Government Budget Deficits”
If all goes according to plan, the Greek parliament’s approval of new austerity measures at the end of June, followed by the euro area’s disbursement of the fifth tranche of …
China may liberalise its rigid exchange rate regime sooner than most observers expect. But what will happen if the renminbi is allowed to float freely? In this article, we argue …