STEP 01
Build a shared scorecard
Agree on a short set of comparable country-level indicators and planning horizons.
A CONSENSUS USE CASE
Your next market decision deserves a wider view.
Strategy teams need to make long-horizon decisions across markets that have very different growth and inflation paths. Comparable expectations from professional private sector forecasters provide a foundation for questioning the investment case, not a substitute for it.
THE QUESTION
“Where should we invest when the next five years look so different across markets?”
Corporates & StrategyCONSENSUS ECONOMICS
01 / THE SITUATION
Here’s the decision.
The expansion decision
A multinational is assessing three locations for a new regional operation.
Each country team has a compelling commercial story. The executive committee wants to see which economic assumptions are shared, which are contested and how a shift in inflation, interest rates or currency expectations changes the case.
THE OBJECTIVE
Compare the external macro baselines for each location, then apply operational and commercial judgement.
02 / THE WORKFLOWFrom raw question
From raw question
to useful evidence.
Compare markets on a consistent horizon, test downside sensitivities, and isolate the assumptions that could change an investment decision.
STEP 02
Read beyond the mean
Review the central outlook, individual forecasts and areas of disagreement where covered.
STEP 03
Stress-test the investment
Translate different macro paths into sensitivity ranges for the business case.
STEP 04
Review as expectations change
Revisit the scorecard when new survey rounds shift the consensus or widen the forecast range.
03 / A PRACTICAL EXAMPLEA worked example.
A worked example.
The numbers in context.
Put candidate markets on a comparable macro baseline.
A strategy team creates a first-pass economic comparison of three candidate markets, before separately evaluating demand, regulation, infrastructure and operating risks.
WORKING EXAMPLEIllustrative example
Swipe sideways to view the complete example table
| Candidate market | GDP growth | Inflation |
|---|---|---|
| Market A | 3.41% | 4.27% |
| Market B | 2.25% | 2.37% |
| Market C | 2.96% | 3.18% |
THE PRACTICAL DELIVERABLE
Market-entry scorecard linking macro sensitivities to the project economics, assumptions owners and evidence gaps.
SUITABLE STARTING POINTBrowse regional forecast reports
Regional publications provide country-level context and, where covered, longer-horizon expectations.
GO FURTHER / APPLY THE FULL DISTRIBUTION
The range behind
The range behind
the average.
Use the full forecast range to challenge market-entry assumptions. The economic baseline is an input into strategy, not a substitute for industry-level demand research.
FORECAST DISTRIBUTIONMarket A consumer-price inflation, same planning year
Consensus mean4.27%
Low3.16%
High5.39%
Standard deviation0.54 pp
BEHIND THE AVERAGE
Selected individual views: 3.91% and 4.76%. Large differences point to assumptions the strategy team should investigate before committing capital.
LOW · 3.16%HIGH · 5.39%
Consensus mean Selected individual forecasts
A PRACTICAL SCENARIO OR RESEARCH TEST
Illustrative examplePressure-test a market-entry business case
Swipe sideways to review the scenario table
| Entry-case sensitivity | Inflation input | Decision to reconsider |
|---|---|---|
| Planning baseline | 4.27% | Use alongside growth and FX baselines in a market scorecard. |
| Input-cost pressure | 5.39% | Revisit procurement, pricing and investment payback. |
| Lower-inflation environment | 3.16% | Reassess price growth and competitive positioning. |
A high inflation forecast is not automatically a low GDP outcome. Build internally consistent joint scenarios and supplement macro forecasts with sector demand, regulation and execution evidence.
OTHER APPLICATIONS FOR THIS AUDIENCE
Further applications.
Country entry prioritisation
Compare markets with very different growth and inflation expectations.
USE THE DATA
Use consistent target years, consensus means and dispersion to flag where forecasts offer less agreement.
OUTPUT
A country entry shortlist with sensitivity ranges and evidence gaps.
Capital investment resilience
Challenge the payback assumptions behind a new facility or acquisition.
USE THE DATA
Apply price, wage, exchange-rate and demand sensitivities to project cash flows and hurdle rates.
OUTPUT
A board-ready strategy options and break-even paper.
04 / WHAT YOU TAKE AWAYA practical result.
A practical result.
Ready to review.
Build an output that can be explained, challenged and updated as forecasts change.
How the consensus is calculatedEXAMPLE DELIVERABLE↗
Illustrative strategy deliverableA comparable market-entry scorecard
An external economic benchmark beside the company’s own demand, cost, regulatory and execution assumptions.
WHAT IT CONTAINS
Adapt the example to your own data and decision process.✓Side-by-side country outlooks
✓Investment-case sensitivity drivers
✓Decision log with assumption owners
05 / THE CONSENSUS ADVANTAGEWhy the data
Why the data
matter here.
Match the forecast inputs to the decision. The average, the distribution and the historical record serve different purposes.
RELEVANT FORECAST INPUTS
01
Cross-country macroeconomic forecasts
02
Inflation, FX and interest-rate outlooks
03
Long-term economic expectations where covered
WHY CONSENSUS ECONOMICS
A comparable starting point across markets.
Country-level consensus forecasts help put different opportunities on the same economic footing. Ranges and individual views challenge fragile assumptions, while longer-horizon surveys can inform strategic planning where covered.
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