In addition to their regular forecasts, once a year we survey our panellists in Latin American Consensus Forecasts (in August) and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (in July) for their projections for growth in a range of economic sectors, based on conventional GDP output breakdowns used in the individual countries.

 

 

The table below shows a sample of the data from our Eastern Europe survey on Sectoral Growth (in this case, from our July 2022 Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts survey), with selected data for three countries: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, together with textual analysis from the same publication.

 

 

In the past the comparative advantage of low employment costs, EU membership and geographical proximity made countries in Eastern Europe prime candidates for euro zone investment. Industrial production was ramped up as car factories were established and supply chain integration became increasingly complex. Some of the large initial gains from a less expensive workforce have since been eroded, alongside the convergence in standards of living, wage inflation and skills transfer. The pandemic has also distorted sectoral growth trends as it altered trade dynamics, constrained social mobility and restricted output and services. In 2022, sharp increases in the cost of borrowing has become more of a hurdle to investment. Corrections from Covid-19 induced slumps should continue to occur as underlying demand returns. However, supply chains appear to be taking longer to recover than in previous shocks, hit partly by war in Ukraine and fears of a global recession in 2023.

A portion of text from Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts, July 18, 2022.