In addition to their regular forecasts, once a year we survey our panellists in Latin American Consensus Forecasts (in August) and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (in July) for their projections for growth in a range of economic sectors, based on conventional GDP output breakdowns used in the individual countries.
|Latin American Consensus Forecasts||Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts|
The table below shows a sample of the data from our Eastern Europe survey on Sectoral Growth (in this case, from our July 2021 Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts survey), with selected data for three countries: Poland, Romania and Turkey, together with textual analysis from the same publication.
Almost every sector around the world suffered a deep contraction in 2020 due to the impact of pandemic-induced lockdowns. Yet the degree to which each country has started to recover in 2021 appears quite different, reflecting differing pre-crisis conditions and management of the health crisis. Matters are complicated by debt accumulation, notably its proportion of total output, and a resurgence in inflation, which may hasten the tightening of monetary policy. Much will hinge on an upswing in industry (a large contributor to GDP in most countries), vaccination progress and the role of technology in a new post pandemic normal. Operational disruptions may affect supply chains and weigh on the primary and secondary sectors, while mobile communication has altered the work place environment. Assumptions about the extent to which growth will return in 2021 and 2022 has also been challenged by the spread of more infectious virus variants, which could cause a reintroduction of travel and social controls.
A portion of text from Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts, July 19, 2021.