In addition to their regular forecasts, once a year we survey our panellists in Latin American Consensus Forecasts (in August) and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (in July) for their projections for growth in a range of economic sectors, based on conventional GDP output breakdowns used in the individual countries.
|Latin American Consensus Forecasts||Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts|
The table below shows a sample of the data from our Eastern Europe survey on Sectoral Growth (in this case, from our July 2019 Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts survey), with selected data for three countries: Poland, Romania and Turkey, together with textual analysis from the same publication.
Unperturbed by the slowdown in the euro zone and a more difficult outlook for trade and investment, forecasts collected in our July surveys continue to suggest a buoyant performance across much of Central and Eastern Europe. Anxieties about a downshift in the business cycle may have been exacerbated by the crisis in Turkey and lingering pessimism about the euro zone. Robust Q1 performances, though, showed that most countries have not been as vulnerable as first feared. GDP growth in Hungary reaccelerated to 1.5% (q-o-q) in Q1, from 1.1% in Q4, underpinned largely by the EU-driven boom in construction. Its service sector has also benefited from increases in household spending power, amid wage inflation and higher employment. However, as with most countries, it has also become more deeply integrated with a less vibrant European, notably German, economy, the manufacturing downturn of which does not appear to have yet hit bottom.
A portion of text from Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts, July 15, 2019.