Evidence map

A structured route through the literature

The bibliography spans the statistical case for combining forecasts, direct assessments of forecast accuracy, institutional comparisons and applications in economic and financial research.

Forecast combination & consensus

  1. Armstrong, J.S. (2001) “Combining Forecasts”, in Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers. 417-439.

  2. Batchelor, R. & P. Dua (1995) “Forecaster Diversity and the Benefits of Combining Forecasts”, Management Science, 41, 68-75.

  3. Bates, J.M. & C.W.J Granger (1969) “The Combination of Forecasts”, Operational Research Quarterly, 20, 451-468.

  4. Clemen, R.T. and R.L. Winkler (1986) “Combining Economic Forecasts”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 4 (1) 39-46.

  5. Graham, J.R. (1996) “Is a Group of Economists Better Than One?” Journal of Business, 69 (2), 193-232.

  6. Winkler, R.L. (1989) “Combining Forecasts: A Philosophical Basis and Some Current Issues”, International Journal of Forecasting, 5 (4), 605-609.

  7. Zarnowitz, V. (1984) “The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys”, Journal of Forecasting, 3, 11-26.

Forecast accuracy & institutional comparison

  1. Batchelor, R. (2000) “The IMF and OECD versus Consensus Forecasts”, Applied Economics, 33 (2), 225-235.

  2. Blix, M., J. Wadefjord, U. Wienecke & M. Adahl (2001) “How good is the forecasting performance of major institutions?”, Economic Review of the Riksbank, 3, 38-68.

  3. Novotny, F. & M. Rakova (2010) “Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective, Working Paper Series, 14.

  4. Zarnowitz, V. & P. Braun (1992) “Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance”, NBER Working Paper, No. 3965.

  5. Zidong An, J.T. Jalles & P. Loungani (2018) “How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? “, IMF Working Paper – WP/18/39.

Economic and investment applications

  1. Brooks, J. (2017) “A Half Century of Macro Momentum”, AQR Capital Management, White Papers.

  2. Hawkins, J. (2002) “Cassandra and the Sirens: Economic Forecasting in Emerging Economies”, IFC Conference – Bank of International Settlements, Basle, 13.

  3. Jones, R.C. (2014) “Making Better Investment Decisions”, The Journal of Portfolio Management, 40 (2), 128-143.

Forecasting foundations & reference works

  1. Clements, M.P. & D.F. Hendry (1998) Forecasting Economic Time Series. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  2. Elliott, G., C.W.J. Granger & A. Timmermann (2006) Handbook of Economic Forecasting. Amsterdam: North-Holland.

  3. McNees, S.K. (1987) “Consensus Forecasts: Tyranny of the Majority?”, New England Economic Review, Nov/Dec, 15-21.

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