In addition to our regular monthly surveys of projections for over 90 currencies we also undertake a special survey of real interest rate trends in Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts (in May and November) for the countries listed below. We present consensus estimates of both short- and long-term interest rates.
G7 & Western Europe: United States, Japan, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Canada, Euro zone, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland.
Asia Pacific: Australia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand.
Eastern Europe: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Turkey.
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Recent Coverage
The table and text commentary below represent a small portion of this special survey taken from our November 2025 issue of Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts.
Complicated Growth, Trade and Fiscal Situation
Global monetary policy tightened significantly in 2022 and 2023 as central banks sought to contain the surge in inflation that followed the Covid-19 pandemic. Price pressures eased in 2024 and 2025, but a possible resurgence has been sparked by US tariff driven inflation risks. Current levels of inflation may not be as concerning as the loss of traction in growth, leading banks to resume monetary easing. In this context, and taking in account of the focus on the sharp drop in monthly nonfarm payroll readings, the US Fed implemented rate cuts in September 17 and October 29 to protect the recovery. Uncertainty about the US economy has been compounded by an extended US government shutdown, which has delayed the release of the September jobs report and left investors with without timely data to evaluate underlying conditions. As a consequence, the prospect of another US rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 10 is now more evenly balanced than previously anticipated US Fed Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned that a third consecutive rate cut should not be viewed as inevitable. Much is data dependent and sentiment on this front has been somewhat lifted by a temporary trade truce between the US and China, reached during President Trump’s meeting with President Xi Jinping in South Korea at the end of October. The latter has eased immediate concerns about excessive government borrowing and persistence in inflation, thereby moderating the recent increase in borrowing costs. However, bond prices – which are inversely related to yields – are highly sensitive to shifts in short rate expectations, which are in turn influenced by the outlook for growth, inflation and unemployment.
A portion of the analysis from Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts, November 10, 2025.