In addition to our regular monthly surveys for our panellists central projections for over 90 currencies we also ask our panellists for their estimates of the likelihood of alternative, perhaps less likely, outcomes in certain major currencies over the next twelve months in Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts (in December) for the currencies listed below.
To download a sample issue of Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts please click on the button below or continue reading to learn more about this special survey.
| G7 | Asia Pacific | Eastern Europe | Latin America | Africa |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro | Australian Dollar | Czech Koruna | Argentinian Peso | South African Rand |
| Japanese Yen | Chinese renminbi | Hungarian Forint | Brazilian Real | |
| UK Pound | Hong Kong dollar | Israeli Shekel | Chilean Peso | |
| Canadian Dollar | Indian Rupee | Polish Zloty | Mexican Peso | |
| Indonesian Rupiah | Russian rouble | Peruvian Sol | ||
| Malaysian Ringgit | Turkish lira | Venezuelan Bolivar | ||
| New Zealand dollar | ||||
| Philippine Peso | ||||
| Singapore dollar | ||||
| South Korean Won | ||||
| Taiwanese dollar | ||||
| Thai baht |
The chart and text commentary below represent a portion of this special survey taken from our December 2024 issue of Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts.
Consensus forecasts are averages of individual panellists’ predictions of how a currency is most likely to move over a given time horizon, but many forecasters also attach some probability to various alternative outcomes or scenarios. This special survey of Currency Risk Probability Assessments attempts to quantify these uncertainties, using our panellists’ estimates to produce several consensus probabilities or risk distributions for the next twelve months. This approach is not only useful in the case of pegged or managed currencies, but also for those wherein confidence in the central scenario is relatively low and the odds associated with surprises are high. Since the last time we undertook this special survey in December 2023, inflation risks have receded and most central banks have tilted their monetary policy bias toward easing. However, geo-political flashpoints remain intense in the Middle East and Ukraine, while the election of US president Trump for another term starting in January 2025 has raised uncertainty with regards to global trade dynamics and the role of the US in global order. This complex geo-macro situation has been compounded by a shift in the political dynamics in Japan, after a snap election in October 2025, and the recent coalition collapses in Germany and France. Each of these events have raised questions about policy and its impact on the prospect for reforms, dampening the already low confidence in the global outlook. A reignition of inflation risks linked to nationalistic sentiment, protectionism and tariffs have led to a reassessment about the rate trajectory for major central banks. The US Fed now appears less likely to cut rates by as much as previously anticipated, providing a boost to US Treasury yields and the US dollar. Many currencies in this special survey have risks tilted toward depreciation, influenced by the timing of US vs. local policy shifts
A portion of text taken from Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts, December 9, 2024.