In addition to their regular forecasts for the major economic variables, twice a year (in February and August) we survey our Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts panellists for their projections for exports, imports and current account balances for the next 4 years. Our panellists are also asked for their predictions for growth in the volume of goods and service exports and imports over the same period.
Our survey for Trade and Current Account Balances covers each of the countries listed below. For illustrative purposes we have included forecast tables for four countries along with a portion of the text commentary taken from our February 2022 survey below. To view a full sample issue of Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts please click the “Download Sample Issues” button below.
|Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts|
Trade and Current Account Balances Forecasts
Despite another challenging year due to the prolonged nature of the coronavirus pandemic, the rapid rollout of vaccines across the globe enabled many economies to ease restrictions in 2021. However, pent-up demand accompanying the re-opening of the global economy has pushed up commodity prices, contributed to supply-side issues and sent inflation soaring. Asia’s export-oriented economies have reaped the benefits of a recovery in global demand. For countries like South Korea and Taiwan, both have benefited substantially from the global semiconductor chip shortage, in part fuelled by strong demand for telecommunication and electronic products. Hefty trade surpluses of above US$80bn are estimated for both countries in 2021 and large surpluses are expected to persist going forward. Meanwhile, the rapid spread of Omicron across Asia could continue to put pressure on supply chain activity. In particular, China’s strict Covid policy and its repeated lockdowns have disrupted supply chains and already led to a slowdown of its trade activity.
Exports and Imports Volumes Forecasts
e = consensus estimate from latest survey.
The table above shows our panellists’ projections for growth in goods and services exports and imports, measured in real terms (i.e. excluding the effects of changes in trade prices). Unfortunately, we were unable to poll for these forecasts in every country we cover (due mainly to problems with data availability). In each case, we have also calculated estimates of the contribution to growth implied by our panels’ forecasts for changes in export and import volumes, measured as the change in net exports (goods and services exports minus goods and services imports) as a percentage of GDP in the previous year. This indicates whether the external sector is adding to or subtracting from overall GDP growth.
A portion of text from Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, February 7, 2022.