In addition to their regular forecasts for the major economic variables, twice a year (in February and August) we survey our Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts panellists for their projections for exports, imports and current account balances for the next 4 years. Our panellists are also asked for their predictions for growth in the volume of goods and service exports and imports over the same period.
Forecasts Coverage
Our survey for Trade and Current Account Balances covers each of the countries listed below. For illustrative purposes we have included forecast tables for four countries along with a portion of the text commentary taken from our February 2025 survey below. To view a full sample issue of Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts please click the “Download Sample Issues” button below.
| Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts | |
|---|---|
| Australia | New Zealand |
| China | Philippines |
| Hong Kong | Singapore |
| India | South Korea |
| Indonesia | Taiwan |
| Malaysia | Thailand |
Trade and Current Account Balances Forecasts
Donald Trump kicked off the US’ trade war with China at the start of this month by imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. This triggered a retaliatory response from China, with Beijing announcing that it would slap a 15% tariff on coal and LNG, 10% on oil and agricultural equipment, as well as put in place an export ban on a host of critical minerals. Trump’s increased protectionist move renews the trade war which started between the two super powers during his first term in office. Many view China as having adopted a restrained response, with Beijing urging for dialogue to avoid a broader trade war. Saddled with a sluggish economy and a protracted property market crisis, China is probably reluctant to be drawn into a prolonged trade war for fear of weakening its economy further. This month it filed a dispute at the WTO over the US’ actions. Apart from China, Canada and Mexico have also been targeted by Trump, while the EU is also in his sights. Asian economies will probably feel the fallout from escalating Sino-US trade tensions given their close supply chains and trade links with China. However, there is still much uncertainty attached to US trade policies and most Asian countries have so far not seen a marked deterioration in their external account forecasts.
Exports and Imports Volumes Forecasts
e = consensus estimate from latest survey.
The table above shows our panellists’ projections for growth in goods and services exports and imports, measured in real terms (i.e. excluding the effects of changes in trade prices). In each case, we have also calculated estimates of the contribution to growth implied by our panels’ forecasts for changes in export and import volumes, measured as the change in net exports (goods and services exports minus goods and services imports) as a percentage of GDP in the previous year. This indicates whether the external sector is adding to or subtracting from overall GDP growth.
A portion of data and text from Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, February 10, 2025.