In addition to their regular forecasts for the major economic variables, twice a year (in February and August) we survey our Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts panellists for their projections for exports, imports and current account balances for the next 4 years. Our panellists are also asked for their predictions for growth in the volume of goods and service exports and imports over the same period.
Our survey for Trade and Current Account Balances covers each of the countries listed below. For illustrative purposes we have included forecast tables for four countries along with a portion of the text commentary taken from our February 2021 survey below. To view a full sample issue of Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts please click the “Download Sample Issues” button below.
|Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts|
Trade and Current Account Balances Forecasts
2020 proved undoubtedly to be a challenging year for the world as the coronavirus pandemic accelerated across the globe and countries locked down their economies to contain the spread of the virus. As many nations plunged into recession this inevitably impacted on global trade given that supply chains have become much more intertwined regionally and globally with the spread of globalisation. In particular, a slump in China’s economy in Q1 2020 saw world supply chains stall, exposing the interdependency of global trade. World trade recovered quickly after the first lockdown ended, but capacity constraints could limit any further upside gains when the second wave of lockdowns ends. Still, China has fared well, with its swift recovery enabling it to meet a rise in overseas orders as manufacturers elsewhere continued to experience disruptions due to lockdown restrictions. In other parts of Asia, Taiwan and South Korea have reaped the benefits of strong global demand for telecommunication and other products related to remote working/learning.
Exports and Imports Volumes Forecasts
e = consensus estimate from latest survey.
The table above shows our panellists’ projections for growth in goods and services exports and imports, measured in real terms (i.e. excluding the effects of changes in trade prices). In each case, we have also calculated estimates of the contribution to growth implied by our panels’ forecasts for changes in export and import volumes, measured as the change in net exports (goods and services exports minus goods and services imports) as a percentage of GDP in the previous year. This indicates whether the external sector is adding to or subtracting from overall GDP growth.
A portion of text from Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, February 8, 2021.