In addition to their annual forecasts, we regularly ask our country panellists to provide short-term quarterly economic forecasts for the next 8 quarters. We undertake special surveys of quarter-by-quarter forecasts across our publications Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, Latin American Consensus Forecasts and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts at regular intervals throughout the year and the resulting tables and analysis are displayed in both the hard-copy and PDF versions of the publications.
Frequency of Quarterly Surveys
Quarter-by-quarter forecasts are updated four times a year for Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe and Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts (in March, June, September and December). Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts and Latin American Consensus Forecasts show these forecasts two times a year (June and December). For the US economy, quarterly forecasts are updated monthly in our publication Consensus Forecasts – USA, and the forecasts shown on a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter annualized basis.
Country Coverage
Our surveys ask respondents for their quarter-by-quarter forecasts as a percentage change over the same quarter of the previous year (often referred to as year-on-year). Below is a list of 50+ countries for which we collect quarterly forecasts.
Example Quarterly Forecasts Data – Japan
The table below shows a sample of the data from one of our surveys for Quarter-by-Quarter forecasts in Japan.
Taken from Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe, December 2025.
Q3 GDP figures for a number of G7 & Western European economies (though not for all) turned out better than expected. It seems that after the tariff-related upheaval of H1 2025, France, the UK, Canada and the Euro zone recorded y-o-y rates that unexpectedly surpassed expectations. (Export activity, in particular, was distorted earlier in the year as firms frontloaded their shipments to the US ahead of the initial tariff-implementation date on April 2, thereby inflating Q1 volumes and leaving a significant payback in Q2).
The UK’s 1.3% (y-o-y) advance, though, belied a softer q-o-q outturn of +0.1%, the latter suggesting some pullback amid growing anxiety over jobs and potential tax increases looming for next year. France’s Q3 growth accelerations of 0.5% q-o-q (and 0.9% y-o-y) were powered by a strong contribution from net trade, especially from aerospace products. Canada also benefited from exports (in crude oil), and from government spending on defense systems. Growth surprised on the higher side, advancing in y-o-y terms by 1.4%, and by +0.6% on a q-o-q basis –despite initial expectations of a possible technical recession (i.e.: two straight quarters of q-o-q growth).
Nevertheless, muted household and business spending remain a concern as the country ponders a more fractious trading relationship with the US, its closest export partner. No official Q3 GDP release has been published yet for the US, but the economy is expected to remain the fastest-growing in the G7, powered by its massive domestic market and financial sector, and its competitive advantage in tech and AI. With that said, higher import prices and tariff-related pressures have weighed on domestic demand, while trade flows remain volatile. The economies which really performed strongly were Spain and Sweden, driven by robust domestic demand and investment.
But Germany and Japan disappointed: German growth stagnated in Q3 while the Japanese Q3 outturn contracted -0.6% (q-o-q) as business investment was pared back and net trade subtracted from activity. With global trade continuing to be one of the most important engines of growth for the G7, a more protectionist and hyper-competitive trading environment has weighed heavily, on manufacturing and investment in the EU especially, exposing some of its structural and competitive weaknesses.
Text from Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe, December, 2025.