In addition to their annual forecasts, we regularly ask our country panellists to provide short-term quarterly economic forecasts for the next 8 quarters. We undertake special surveys of quarter-by-quarter forecasts across our publications Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, Latin American Consensus Forecasts and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts at regular intervals throughout the year and the resulting tables and analysis are displayed in both the hard-copy and PDF versions of the publications.
Frequency of Quarterly Surveys
Quarter-by-quarter forecasts are updated four times a year for Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe and Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts (in March, June, September and December). Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts and Latin American Consensus Forecasts show these forecasts two times a year (June and December).
Country Coverage
Our surveys ask respondents for their quarter-by-quarter forecasts as a percentage change over the same quarter of the previous year (often referred to as year-on-year). Below is a list of 50+ countries for which we collect quarterly forecasts. Please note that for the US economy, quarterly forecasts are updated monthly in our publication Consensus Forecasts – USA, and the forecasts shown on a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter annualized basis.
Example Quarterly Forecasts Data – France
The table below shows a sample of the data from one of our surveys for Quarter-by-Quarter forecasts in France.
Taken from Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe, June 2022.
As war between Russia and Ukraine rages, global energy and commodity prices continue to soar, resulting in mounting inflation across the G7 & Western Europe. Observers warn of a cost-of-living crisis for all countries surveyed as household incomes are squeezed and economies grind to a halt. Quarterly GDP Growth Projections have once again dipped from three months’ ago, as central banks are forced to adopt a more hawkish policy bias which (along with higher costs) looks set to deter consumer spending and investment. The 2023 GDP outlook for the UK has moderated significantly since our March 2022 quarterly survey, with elevated inflation unlikely to show any respite until mid-2023 at least, causing the economy to slow markedly. According to the consensus, the UK will experience not only the highest headline inflation in the G7 in 2022, but significant underlying price pressures as pent-up demand for goods and services outstrips producers’ ability to meet that demand. Staffing shortages (especially in the US and UK) also add to a sectoral inflation squeeze, as do global supply bottlenecks. As a result, there have been significant upside revisions to Quarterly Consumer Price Inflation forecasts. Our previous quarterly survey indicated that inflation in the Euro zone would peak at 6.8% (y-o-y) in Q2 2022 – this has now been upgraded to 8.0% and pushed forward to Q3. The US and Spain may have come close to their inflation peaks of 8% or more in Q1-Q2, but underlying price pressures are more entrenched due to the pass-through from commodity prices. Japan has a lower inflation trajectory forecasted than other countries, but even this highly-disinflationary economy will see a bump in imported CPI, putting downside pressure on the yen as the Bank of Japan maintains its decades-long policy stance. Most economies are expected to have inflation levels higher than their central bank targets through to at least Q4 2023. As banks play catch-up and tilt their policy focus toward containing inflation, inevitably we will see faster movement in interest rate cycles than previously anticipated. This is engendering rising pessimism about the global GDP outlook and a developing risk of recession.
Text from Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe, June, 2022.