In addition to their annual forecasts, we regularly ask our country panellists to provide short-term economic forecasts for the next 8 quarters. We undertake special surveys of quarterly forecasts across our publications Consensus Forecasts, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, Latin American Consensus Forecasts and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts at regular intervals throughout the year and the resulting tables and analysis are displayed in both the hard-copy and PDF versions of the publications.
Quarter-by-quarter forecasts are updated every March, June, September and December (in Consensus Forecasts and Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts), May and November (in Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts) and June and December (in Latin American Consensus Forecasts). Below is a list of countries for which we collect quarterly forecasts. Furthermore, quarter-by-quarter forecasts for the US economy are updated monthly in our publication Consensus Forecasts – USA.
|Consensus Forecasts||Asia Pacific
|United States||Australia||Argentina||Czech Republic|
|Euro zone||New Zealand||Estonia|
The table below shows a sample of the data from one of our surveys for Quarter-by-Quarter forecasts in France (from our March 2019 Consensus Forecasts survey).
The need to anticipate an economy’s trajectory receives added attention as one approaches turning points of a business cycle. Much of Europe is now through the expansion phase that peaked in 2017, as witnessed by downward trends in quarterly GDP growth in 2018. This loss of momentum did not surprise given pervasive uncertainties caused by global trade frictions and Brexit. Italy slipped into recession in the final quarter of last year (defined as two straight quarters of negative GDP growth), while Germany narrowly avoided one. France did not suffer as much of a collapse in output by comparison (despite widespread ‘yellow vest’ protests) and might even improve upon the 0.3% (q-o-q) increase in GDP in Q4, once the economy recovers from those disruptions. Yet the spectre of stagnation (or even negative output) continues to cast a shadow over most European countries, due to sluggish domestic demand and external headwinds. Forecasts from our latest survey suggest that weaknesses will extend through much of 2019, although some improvements may emerge toward the end of the year and into 2020. The UK may follow a similar trend, although the magnitude of the political crisis brings risks of a more pronounced slowdown. In contrast, the US fared relatively well in relation to its peers, as it expanded 0.6% (q-o-q) in Q4 2018. Yet a slowdown in Q1 appears inevitable, following a series of soft monthly indicators. In addition, most panellists warn of momentum loss later in 2019 or 2020 as the effects of corporate tax cuts begin to fade and debt and protectionist risks weigh on investor sentiment.
Text from Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe, March 11, 2019.