In addition to their annual forecasts, we regularly ask our country panellists to provide short-term quarterly economic forecasts for the next 8 quarters. We undertake special surveys of quarter-by-quarter forecasts across our publications Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, Latin American Consensus Forecasts and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts at regular intervals throughout the year and the resulting tables and analysis are displayed in both the hard-copy and PDF versions of the publications.
Frequency of Quarterly Surveys
Quarter-by-quarter forecasts are updated four times a year for Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe and Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts (in March, June, September and December). Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts shows these forecasts in May and November, while updates occur in June and December for Latin American Consensus Forecasts.
Our surveys ask respondents for their quarter-by-quarter forecasts as a percentage change over the same quarter of the previous year (often referred to as year-on-year). Below is a list of 50+ countries for which we collect quarterly forecasts. Please note that for the US economy, quarterly forecasts are updated monthly in our publication Consensus Forecasts – USA, and the forecasts shown on a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter annualized basis.
Example Quarterly Forecasts Data – France
The table below shows a sample of the data from one of our surveys for Quarter-by-Quarter forecasts in France (from our June 14, 2021 Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe survey).
Q1 2021 national accounts for the G7 & Western Europe painted a picture of sharply-reined-in activity (to varying degrees), buffeted by winter’s second wave of Covid. As countries grappled with new variants and renewed restrictions on mobility, the rush to secure vaccines became a priority. Supply and logistical challenges threaten to derail some of these efforts – much of Asia, Africa and Latin America have had vastly more difficulty in securing vaccines, therefore lagging in inoculating their populations, leaving serious uncertainty over whether Covid can be defeated by 2022, especially given the world’s globalised links. For example, India, which has been especially badly hit by Covid, is a major producer of these vaccines for the rest of the world. The United States and United Kingdom got a head-start on vaccine rollouts and may be able to loosen most social restrictions in June/July. European countries are finally starting to receive more vaccine supplies and see increased take-up. Many Euro area economies (especially France, Italy and Spain) will be keen to reopen for summer tourism, to recoup some of last year’s losses.
Our June 2021 survey of Quarterly Forecasts points to outsized Q2 2021 GDP forecasts as a result, inflated by the unprecedented weakness in Q2 last year. From there, it looks like the quarterly profile for the United States remains robust over the next few quarters. The economy is starting to rocket ahead, fuelled by pent-up demand, corporate sentiment and massive fiscal stimulus which included direct-to-citizen payouts. Concerns over a slow recovery in countries like France, for example, could result in further government spending there (as well as tapping the EU Recovery Fund) to kick-start activity this year. The economic turnaround in Europe and Japan (the latter is still under restrictions ahead of the Tokyo Olympics) is expected to be somewhat softer. Consumption currently remains hesitant. Policy stimulus, last year’s base effects and global supply-chain disruption are pushing up our panel’s quarterly inflation projections. The US CPI outlook has risen noticeably and may stay at elevated levels into early 2022.
Text from Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe, June 14, 2021.