In addition to their annual forecasts, we regularly ask our country panellists to provide short-term quarterly economic forecasts for the next 8 quarters. We undertake special surveys of quarter-by-quarter forecasts across our publications Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, Latin American Consensus Forecasts and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts at regular intervals throughout the year and the resulting tables and analysis are displayed in both the hard-copy and PDF versions of the publications.
Frequency of Quarterly Surveys
Quarter-by-quarter forecasts are updated four times a year for Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe and Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts (in March, June, September and December). Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts shows these forecasts in May and November, while updates occur in June and December for Latin American Consensus Forecasts.
Our surveys ask respondents for their quarter-by-quarter forecasts as a percentage change over the same quarter of the previous year (often referred to as year-on-year). Below is a list of 50+ countries for which we collect quarterly forecasts. Please note that for the US economy, quarterly forecasts are updated monthly in our publication Consensus Forecasts – USA, and the forecasts shown on a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter annualized basis.
Example Quarterly Forecasts Data – France
The table below shows a sample of the data from one of our surveys for Quarter-by-Quarter forecasts in France (from our June 8, 2020 Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe survey).
A sudden pause across the global economy to contain the spread of the coronavirus has prompted an unparalleled sequence of downward revisions to near-term quarterly GDP forecasts. The negative shock is unlikely to be rapidly eradicated, with business operations needing to adapt to a “new normal” as authorities gradually roll back lockdown restrictions. Even Japan’s lesser output loss in Q2 2020 will not prevent real GDP from languishing below pre-crisis levels through to the end of 2021, as it struggles to get out of first gear. The downward jolt in Q2 could be particularly severe in the UK and Euro area. Germany is emerging from the peak of the pandemic in a healthier position than France and Italy, yet remains highly reliant on its trade partners to help rejuvenate the key auto sector.
The path to recovery remains dependent on a number of factors. Health experts have warned that the transmission of the virus could accelerate again without a highly efficient test & trace system in place, particularly as cross-border travel rises and consumer-facing industries restart operations. Some have raised the prospect of a second surge possibly in Q4 of this year. Moreover, there are questions over consumer patterns having altered permanently during the pandemic. Exceptional fiscal measures have prevented large-scale insolvencies for now, but more job cuts could follow down the line as the most supportive measures are gradually eased. Some have urged governments to put green policies at the heart of plans to revive economic activity.
Text from Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe, June 8, 2020.