Oil Price Forecasts

Oil price forecasts are included each month in our publications Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe (page 27), Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts (page 30), Latin American Consensus Forecasts (page 29) and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (page 25).

Extensive coverage of oil prices (Brent and WTI) is presented in our Energy and Metals Consensus Forecasts publication. It features:

  • Individual panellist and consensus oil price forecasts for the next eight quarters, in addition to annual average price forecasts for the 2, 3, and 4 year horizons.
  • Long-term (5-10 year) individual panellist and consensus price forecasts in nominal and real (inflation adjusted) terms.
  • Forecasts and analysis for more than 30 other individual commodities, including RBOB gasoline, coal, aluminium, copper, lithium, iron ore, gold and many more.

 

The table and text (below) is an example of the monthly survey results for Brent Oil Price Forecasts taken from our February 2022 regional publications. Each month we ask our panellists for their forecasts for the Brent price in 3 and 12 months from the survey date and display the average (mean), along with the high and low forecasts, standard deviation and number of forecasters.

Could Oil Prices Reach US$100 a Barrel?

Since December’s brief drop to around US$74, the price of Brent has rallied significantly. Ongoing global supply-chain issues, advancing inflation and supply shortages in the crude oil market propelled the spot price to US$97.28 on February 7. With demand for oil outpacing supply (amid capacity constraints among some producers), global crude inventories have fallen to their lowest level in 7 years. Brent initially breached US$90 on January 26, the day of the US FOMC meeting which marked a hawkish shift in the Fed’s balance of inflation risks. The world’s major central banks have either already started or will soon hike interest rates, tightening global monetary conditions. But for now, oil prices remain strong and traders are now wondering whether US$100 could be around the corner. Saudi Aramco has already hiked its March price to Asian customers.

Taken from Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe, February 7, 2022.