Oil Price Forecasts

Oil price forecasts are included each month in our publications Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe (page 27), Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts (page 30), Latin American Consensus Forecasts (page 29) and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (page 25).

More extensive coverage of oil prices (Brent and WTI) is presented in our Energy and Metals Consensus Forecasts publication, which includes forecasts and detailed analysis for over 30 individual commodities.

The table and text (below) is an example of the monthly survey results for Brent Oil Price Forecasts taken from our January 2018 regional publications. Each month we ask our panellists for their forecasts for the Brent price in 3 and 12 months from the survey date and display the average (mean), along with the high and low forecasts, standard deviation and number of forecasters.

Brent Crude Oil Forecasts

Rising Supply, Rising Demand, Rising Prices

Brent went into the new year on a high, trading at US$66.80 on December 28 and climbing above US$67 a barrel in early January. This was its highest level since 2015. The main reason for the surge were hedge funds placing record bets on oil prices continuing to rise in 2018. The extension of OPEC and Russian-led curbs on oil output at the end of last year have also supported crude. Geopolitical events, too, have pushed up oil futures, including political protests in Iran against the current regime, and Venezuela’s deep economic crisis which has seen production there fall precipitously. Freezing cold temperatures in North America also kept prices high. Prices dipped a bit on January 5, but rebounded to US$68.48 on January 8, on the back of stronger US oil output which is expected to climb further in 2018.

Taken from Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe, January 8, 2018.