Oil price forecasts are included each month in our publications Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe (page 27), Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts (page 30), Latin American Consensus Forecasts (page 29) and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (page 25).
- Individual panellist and consensus oil price forecasts for the next eight quarters, in addition to annual average price forecasts for the 2, 3, and 4 year horizons.
- Long-term (5-10 year) individual panellist and consensus price forecasts in nominal and real (inflation adjusted) terms.
- Forecasts and analysis for more than 30 other individual commodities, including RBOB gasoline, coal, aluminium, copper, lithium, iron ore, gold and many more.
The table and text (below) is an example of the monthly survey results for Brent Oil Price Forecasts taken from our February 2019 regional publications. Each month we ask our panellists for their forecasts for the Brent price in 3 and 12 months from the survey date and display the average (mean), along with the high and low forecasts, standard deviation and number of forecasters.
Price Volatility Begins to Subside
Brent prices remain well below their October 2018 peak of US$86/bbl, but a rebound from a recent low of near US$50 occurred in January 2019. Support above US$60/bbl in recent weeks has come from a new round of output restraint from OPEC and its allies, as well as recent US sanctions against crisis-stricken Venezuela. Efforts to prevent a supply overhang and possible disruptions to shipments and transactions of the fossil fuel should provide scope for further increase. The outlook, though, is complicated by risks to global demand and US-Sino trade tensions, which have hampered investor confidence. In particular, a GDP slowdown in China, which expanded 6.4% (y-o-y) in Q4 2018, and a slump in industrial production in much of Europe, has raised questions about energy consumption.
Taken from Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe, February 11, 2019.