Oil Price Forecasts

Oil price forecasts are included each month in our publications Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe (page 27), Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts (page 30), Latin American Consensus Forecasts (page 29) and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (page 25).


Extensive coverage of oil prices (Brent and WTI) is presented in our Energy and Metals Consensus Forecasts publication. It features:

  • Individual panellist and consensus oil price forecasts for the next eight quarters, in addition to annual average price forecasts for the 2, 3, and 4 year horizons.
  • Long-term (5-10 year) individual panellist and consensus price forecasts in nominal and real (inflation adjusted) terms.
  • Forecasts and analysis for more than 30 other individual commodities, including RBOB gasoline, coal, aluminium, copper, lithium, iron ore, gold and many more.

 


The table and text (below) is an example of the monthly survey results for Brent Oil Price Forecasts taken from our February 2021 regional publications. Each month we ask our panellists for their forecasts for the Brent price in 3 and 12 months from the survey date and display the average (mean), along with the high and low forecasts, standard deviation and number of forecasters.

Oil Prices Consensus Forecasts

Powerful Recovery in Oil Prices

Even with lockdowns in major oil-consuming economies, prices for Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have rallied on the back of news of vaccination rollout programs. On Monday, February 8, Brent crossed the US$60 per barrel threshold to US$ 60.17, a price range it fell out of after January of last year. WTI, meanwhile, has risen above the US$55-mark. Saudi Arabia has made efforts to curb oil supply, and this has supported prices. Signs of stronger demand coming out of Asia, especially from China, represent good news for the oil markets, as do hopes of another round of massive economic stimulus in the US. Some observers question the market euphoria given ongoing restrictions in the west limiting oil demand there. For now, with Saudi Arabia currently dedicated to maintaining output cuts, consensus forecasts have seen a boost.

Taken from Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe, February 8, 2021.