In addition to their annual forecasts, we regularly ask our country panellists to provide longer-term forecasts up to 10 years out from the survey date. We undertake these special surveys across our publications Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, Latin American Consensus Forecasts and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts. The resulting tables and analysis are displayed in both the hard-copy and PDF versions of the publication twice a year, in April and October.
Long-Term Forecasts in Excel
More recently, we have broadened our coverage of Long-Term Consensus Forecasts by making them available in Excel format. The files contain historical survey data going back to 1989 for some countries, and include forecasts on GDP growth, Consumption, Investment, Consumer Prices and Interest Rates, among others. These databases are split into four regional modules (see table below), covering a total of 87 countries (29 new countries were added in April 2019 – full list of these new additions under the table below).
These files are updated with surveyed data four times a year (in January, April, July and October). For more information on our Long-Term forecasts databases in Excel, please contact us at Consensus Economics.
|Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe||Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts||Latin American Consensus Forecasts||Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts|
|United States||Austria||Australia||Argentina||Czech Rep.|
|Euro zone||Egypt||New Zealand||Estonia|
|Spain||Saudi Arabia||South Korea||Romania|
New countries included in our Long-Term Forecasts coverage from April 2019:
Asia Pacific region: Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.
Eastern Europe region: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Cyprus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Latin America region: Bolivia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay and Uruguay.
Trends in Long-Term Forecasts
A recent study conducted by M. Kose, F. Ohnsorge and N. Sugawara (2019) titled “The Growth Forecast Puzzle” investigates the increasing pessimism over forecasts for the long-term economic outlook. The authors examine the historic trends in Long-Term Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts and how they may offer insight into the current state of the global economy.
The chart below shows trends in Long-Term GDP Growth and Inflation Forecast data for Russia taken from our Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts publication in October 2020.
For most countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), real GDP forecasts for the 6-10 year horizon have remained rather depressed (See Russia, chart above). Our Long-Term survey for Central and Eastern Europe is conducted at a time of renewed economic uncertainty. In the past few weeks, a dramatic increase in coronavirus infections has put several countries on the verge of another lockdown, triggering a slide in forecasts for 2021. The magnitude of output loss will be different for different countries, reflecting the extent of the local outbreak and its affect on trade. Likewise, the pace of the eventual recovery will hinge on the success or failure of policymakers to provide sufficient safety nets for workers and businesses so they can get through the crisis. Yet a snap back to a pre-virus state now appears unrealistic anytime soon. The extent to which Covid-19 will reshape social and economic normalities remains unknown. Efforts to mitigate the impact of the health shock has also led to higher national debt loads, which could weigh on the long-term outlook.
A portion of text from Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts, October 19, 2020.