In addition to their annual forecasts, we regularly ask our country panellists to provide longer-term forecasts up to 10 years out from the survey date. We undertake these special surveys across our publications Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, Latin American Consensus Forecasts and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts. The resulting tables and analysis are displayed in both the hard-copy and PDF versions of the publication twice a year, in April and October.
Long-Term Forecasts in Excel
More recently, we have broadened our coverage of Long-Term Consensus Forecasts by making them available in Excel format. The files contain historical survey data going back to 1989 for some countries, and include forecasts on GDP growth, Consumption, Investment, Consumer Prices and Interest Rates, among others. These databases are split into four regional modules (see table below), covering a total of 87 countries (29 new countries were added in April 2019 – full list of these new additions under the table below).
These files are updated with surveyed data four times a year (in January, April, July and October). For more information on our Long-Term forecasts databases in Excel, please contact us at Consensus Economics.
|Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe||Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts||Latin American Consensus Forecasts||Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts|
|United States||Austria||Australia||Argentina||Czech Rep.|
|Euro zone||Egypt||New Zealand||Estonia|
|Spain||Saudi Arabia||South Korea||Romania|
New countries included in our Long-Term Forecasts coverage from April 2019:
Asia Pacific region: Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.
Eastern Europe region: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Cyprus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Latin America region: Bolivia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay and Uruguay.
Trends in Long-Term Forecasts
A recent study conducted by M. Kose, F. Ohnsorge and N. Sugawara (2019) titled “The Growth Forecast Puzzle” investigates the increasing pessimism over forecasts for the long-term economic outlook. The authors examine the historic trends in Long-Term Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts and how they may offer insight into the current state of the global economy.
The chart below shows trends in Long-Term GDP Growth and Inflation Forecast data for Russia taken from our Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts publication.
While a cyclical recovery continues to gain momentum across Central and Eastern Europe, a high level of caution surrounds the medium- to long-term outlook. Capital investment, labour inputs and technological developments remain the classical influences of future growth potential. However, the spike in political instability and tensions over the past 12-24 months, notably in Turkey and Russia, has raised uncertainty with regard to future economic policies, governance and structural reform, which do not bode well for the private sector. In addition, observers warn of excess debt, which will be made prominent as high liquidity is withdrawn, migrant relocation issues, and a continuing populist political tide across Europe, as key risks to future EU integration. Brexit may trigger a significant reduction in the EU budget that could also cause further tension.
A portion of text from Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts, October 16, 2017.