In addition to their annual forecasts, we regularly ask our country panellists to provide longer-term forecasts up to 10 years out from the survey date. We undertake these special surveys across our publications Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, Latin American Consensus Forecasts and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts. The resulting tables and analysis are displayed in both the hard-copy and PDF versions of the publication twice a year, in April and October.
Long-Term Forecasts in Excel
More recently, we have broadened our coverage of Long-Term Consensus Forecasts by making them available in Excel format. The files contain historical survey data going back to 1989 for some countries, and include forecasts on GDP growth, Consumption, Investment, Consumer Prices and Interest Rates, among others. These databases are split into four regional modules (see table below), covering a total of 90 countries (30 new countries have been added from April 2019 – full list of these new additions under the table below).
These files are updated with surveyed data four times a year (in January, April, July and October). For more information on our Long-Term forecasts databases in Excel, please contact us at Consensus Economics.
|Consensus Forecasts – G7 and Western Europe||Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts||Latin American Consensus Forecasts||Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts|
|United States||Austria||Australia||Argentina||Czech Rep.|
|Euro zone||Egypt||New Zealand||Estonia|
|Spain||Saudi Arabia||South Korea||Romania|
New countries included in our Long-Term Forecasts coverage from April 2019:
Asia Pacific region: Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
Eastern Europe region: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Cyprus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Latin America region: Bolivia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay and Uruguay.
Trends in Long-Term Forecasts
A recent study conducted by M. Kose, F. Ohnsorge and N. Sugawara (2019) titled “The Growth Forecast Puzzle” investigates the increasing pessimism over forecasts for the long-term economic outlook. The authors examine the historic trends in Long-Term Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts and how they may offer insight into the current state of the global economy.
The chart below shows trends in Long-Term GDP Growth and Inflation Forecast data for Russia taken from our Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts publication in October 2021.
Changes in the Long-Term Growth Outlook
Our latest long-term survey has coincided with fresh concerns over the economic recovery due to rising inflation and uncertainty over how quickly policymakers may pull away from stimulative conditions that were adopted to cushion the devastation caused by Covid-19. Growth in 2021 has been bolstered by the release of domestic demand and massive government spending, but the pandemic remains a major obstacle to overcome, especially in Bulgaria and Romania, where rates of inoculation have been low. In addition, the spike in inflationary pressures on the back of creaking global supply chains have revived doubts over price stability and whether a slowdown in growth could resurrect longer-term concerns over high levels of debt. The past 18 months have challenged traditional patterns of trade, supply chains and even the concept of globalization, which will further affect expectations beyond the short term.
A portion of text from Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts, October 18, 2021.