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A Balanced Approach

For several decades, journalists and researchers have been collecting and combining economic and financial forecasts using surveys. For our Consensus Forecasts™ publications we ask the world's leading forecasters for their predictions for more than 1,000 variables from over 85 nations in Industrialised Countries, Eastern Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America. Incoming survey responses are then processed using proprietary software and checked for accuracy, completeness and integrity. For the principal countries covered, our publications show the estimates of individual panellists for each economic indicator, along with the mean average.

The table below shows a small sample of the data from Consensus Forecasts™ for the United States (in this case, from our January 11, 2016 survey).


Forecasters For
The United States
Gross Domestic Product
Consumer Price Inflation
 % change over previous year 2016 2017 2016 2017
         
  Moody's Analytics 2.8 3.0 1.9 2.8
  UBS 2.8 2.5 1.6 2.6
  Nat Assn of Home Builders 2.7 2.7 1.5 1.9
  Standard & Poor's 2.7 2.6 1.7 2.3
  Swiss Re 2.7 2.7 1.6 2.5
  IHS Economics 2.7 2.9 1.2 2.6
  Inforum - Univ. of Maryland 2.6 2.7 1.7 2.3
  Georgia State University 2.6 2.4 1.6 2.4
  Univ of Michigan - RSQE 2.5 2.8 1.5 2.3
  Barclays 2.5 2.5 1.2 2.2
  Citigroup 2.5 2.5 1.8 2.1
  Northern Trust 2.4 2.3 1.2 1.9
  Oxford Economics 2.4 2.7 1.3 2.2
  Credit Suisse 2.4 na 1.3 na
  Econ Intelligence Unit 2.4 2.4 1.6 2.3
  General Motors 2.4 2.4 1.6 2.1
  Robert Fry Economics 2.4 2.5 1.6 2.2
  American Int'l Group 2.3 2.2 1.1 2.3
  Wells Capital Mgmt 2.3 2.6 1.6 2.0
  First Trust Advisors 2.3 2.4 1.6 2.7
  HSBC 2.3 2.2 1.5 1.8
  RDQ Economics 2.3 1.9 1.8 2.5
  Bank of America - Merrill 2.3 2.3 1.2 2.0
  PNC Financial Services 2.3 2.4 1.5 2.3
  Eaton Corporation 2.2 2.6 1.5 1.9
  Fannie Mae 2.2 2.2 1.6 2.2
  Goldman Sachs 2.2 2.2 1.3 2.4
  The Conference Board 2.1 na 1.6 na
  Macroeconomic Advisers
2.1 2.3 1.6 2.3
  JP Morgan 2.1 2.1 1.4 2.4
  Wells Fargo 2.0 2.4 1.3 2.2
         
  Consensus (Average) 2.4 2.5 1.5 2.3
         
  Last Month's Mean 2.5   1.7  
  3 Months Ago 2.6   1.8  
  High 2.8 3.0 1.9 2.8
  Low 2.0 1.9 1.1 1.8
  Standard Deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2