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A Balanced Approach

For several decades, journalists and researchers have been collecting and combining economic and financial forecasts using surveys. For our Consensus Forecasts™ publications we ask the world's leading forecasters for their predictions for more than 1,000 variables from over 85 nations in Industrialised Countries, Eastern Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America. Incoming survey responses are then processed using proprietary software and checked for accuracy, completeness and integrity. For the principal countries covered, our publications show the estimates of individual panellists for each economic indicator, along with the mean average.

The table below shows a small sample of the data from Consensus Forecasts™ for the United States (in this case, from our January 13, 2014 survey).


Forecasters For
The United States
Gross Domestic Product
Consumer Price Inflation
 % change over previous year 2014 2015 2014 2015
         
  Moody's Analytics 3.2 3.8 2.0 2.4
  RDQ Economics 3.2 na 1.5 na
  Northern Trust 3.2 3.4 1.6 2.2
  Wells Capital Mgmt 3.1 2.8 1.6 2.0
  Nomura 3.1 3.3 1.8 1.9
  The Conference Board 3.1 3.1 1.7 2.1
  Bank of America - Merrill 3.0 3.2 1.3 1.5
  Action Economics 3.0 3.0 1.7 2.2
  Credit Suisse 3.0 2.9 1.4 1.9
  Macroeconomic Advisers 3.0 3.3 1.5 1.6
  General Motors 2.9 3.2 1.5 1.5
  Swiss Re 2.9 3.5 2.1 2.2
  Fannie Mae 2.9 2.8 1.5 1.6
  First Trust Advisors 2.9 3.0 1.9 2.3
  PNC Financial Services 2.9 2.6 1.8 2.1
  Nat Assn of Home Builders 2.8 3.7 1.4 1.8
  Ford Motor Company 2.8 3.0 1.5 1.5
  DuPont 2.8 3.0 1.5 2.0
  Wells Fargo 2.8 3.0 1.6 2.1
  Barclays Capital 2.8 2.6 1.7 2.2
  Standard & Poor's 2.8 3.3 1.4 1.8
  Inforum - Univ of Maryland 2.8 3.1 1.8 2.0
  Univ of Michigan - RSQE 2.7 3.0 1.4 1.7
  IHS Economics 2.7 3.2 1.4 1.8
  Oxford Economics 2.7 3.3 1.7 2.0
  American Int'l Group 2.6 3.4 1.5 1.8
  Econ Intelligence Unit 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.2
  Morgan Stanley 2.6 2.7 1.5 1.6
  JP Morgan
2.5 2.9 1.5 1.9
  Eaton Corporation 2.4 2.4 1.7 2.0
  Georgia State University 2.3 2.5 1.6 1.8
  HSBC 2.3 2.5 1.7 1.9
         
  Consensus (Average) 2.8 3.0 1.6 1.9
         
  Last Month's Mean 2.6   1.7  
  3 Months Ago 2.6   1.8  
  High 3.2 3.8 2.2 2.4
  Low 2.3 2.4 1.3 1.5
  Standard Deviation 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3