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A Balanced Approach

For several decades, journalists and researchers have been collecting and combining economic and financial forecasts using surveys. For our Consensus Forecasts™ publications we ask the world's leading forecasters for their predictions for more than 1,000 variables from over 85 nations in Industrialised Countries, Eastern Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America. Incoming survey responses are then processed using proprietary software and checked for accuracy, completeness and integrity. For the principal countries covered, our publications show the estimates of individual panellists for each economic indicator, along with the mean average.

The table below shows a small sample of the data from Consensus Forecasts™ for the United States (in this case, from our January 14, 2013 survey).


Forecasters For
The United States
Gross Domestic Product
Consumer Price Inflation
 % change over previous year 2013 2014 2013 2014
         
  Swiss Re 2.4 3.2 2.0 2.1
  Ford Motor Company 2.3 3.0 1.6 1.8
  General Motors 2.3 3.2 2.2 2.4
  First Trust Advisors 2.3 3.2 2.4 3.1
  Inforum - Univ of Maryland 2.3 2.9 2.2 2.6
  RDQ Economics 2.3 na 2.3 na
  UBS 2.3 3.0 1.7 2.4
  Macroeconomic Advisers 2.3 2.9 1.5 1.8
  Nat Assn of Home Builders 2.3 3.2 1.9 2.0
  American Int'l Group 2.2 2.6 1.4 1.9
  Barclays Capital 2.1 2.5 2.1 2.5
  PNC Financial Services 2.1 2.8 2.2 2.5
  DuPont 2.1 3.1 2.0 2.5
  Credit Suisse 2.1 2.5 1.5 2.0
  Moody's Analytics 2.1 3.9 2.1 2.5
  Eaton Corporation 2.0 2.4 2.1 2.3
  Wells Capital Mgmt 2.0 na 2.4 na
  Goldman Sachs 1.9 2.9 2.2 2.1
  Univ of Michigan - RSQE 1.9 2.7 1.9 1.8
  Fannie Mae 1.9 2.5 1.6 1.9
  Northern Trust 1.8 2.8 1.7 1.8
  The Conference Board 1.8 2.4 2.0 2.2
  IHS Global Insight 1.7 2.7 1.4 1.7
  Wells Fargo 1.7 2.4 1.8 2.1
  JP Morgan 1.6 2.4 1.5 1.7
  Bank of America - Merrill 1.6 2.8 1.7 1.8
  Georgia State University 1.4 2.3 1.4 1.7
  Morgan Stanley 1.4 2.7 1.3 1.6
         
  Consensus (Average) 2.0 2.8 1.9 2.1
         
  Last Month's Mean 1.9   2.0  
  3 Months Ago 2.0   2.0  
  High 2.4 3.9 2.4 3.1
  Low 1.4 2.3 1.3 1.6
  Standard Deviation 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4