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A Balanced Approach

For several decades, journalists and researchers have been collecting and combining economic and financial forecasts using surveys. For our Consensus Forecasts™ publications we ask the world's leading forecasters for their predictions for more than 1,000 variables from over 85 nations in Industrialised Countries, Eastern Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America. Incoming survey responses are then processed using proprietary software and checked for accuracy, completeness and integrity. For the principal countries covered, our publications show the estimates of individual panellists for each economic indicator, along with the mean average.

The table below shows a small sample of the data from Consensus Forecasts™ for the United States (in this case, from our January 12, 2015 survey).


Forecasters For
The United States
Gross Domestic Product
Consumer Price Inflation
 % change over previous year 2015 2016 2015 2016
         
  Bank of America - Merrill 3.5 3.0 0.2 2.9
  PNC Financial Services 3.5 2.8 1.0 2.5
  Fannie Mae 3.5 2.6 0.7 2.1
  DuPont 3.4 3.3 0.8 2.0
  Nat Assn of Home Builders 3.4 3.0 1.1 1.9
  Credit Suisse 3.4 na 0.1 na
  RDQ Economics 3.4 3.0 0.6 2.2
  Macroeconomic Advisers 3.3 2.9 0.5 2.3
  Northern Trust 3.3 2.7 0.7 2.2
  Univ of Michigan - RSQE 3.3 3.1 0.1 1.9
  Swiss Re 3.3 3.2 -0.3 3.6
  JP Morgan 3.3 2.5 -0.2 2.0
  Econ Intelligence Unit 3.3 2.5 1.5 2.1
  General Motors 3.3 2.8 0.8 2.3
  Wells Capital Mgmt 3.3 2.7 0.8 2.2
  Oxford Economics 3.3 2.9 1.1 2.2
  Moody's Analytics 3.3 3.6 1.5 2.4
  First Trust Advisors 3.2 2.6 1.3 2.8
  Nomura 3.2 2.5 0.0 2.3
  Ford Motor Company 3.2 2.5 0.6 2.9
  Inforum - Univ of Maryland 3.2 3.0 0.9 2.3
  UBS 3.1 2.8 1.4 1.0
  Wells Fargo 3.1 2.9 0.9 2.4
  IHS Economics 3.1 2.7 0.1 2.3
  Citigroup 3.0 2.8 1.5 2.0
  Action Economics 3.0 2.7 0.6 2.3
  Barclays Capital 3.0 2.7 -0.1 2.6
  Eaton Corporation 3.0 2.8 1.1 2.0
  Georgia State University
3.0 2.5 0.6 2.2
  The Conference Board 2.9 2.5 0.8 2.0
  HSBC 2.8 2.6 0.0 1.8
  American Int'l Group 2.8 2.6 1.0 1.9
         
  Consensus (Average) 3.2 2.8 0.7 2.2
         
  Last Month's Mean 3.0   1.3  
  3 Months Ago 3.1   1.8  
  High 3.5 3.6 1.5 3.6
  Low 2.8 2.5 -0.3 1.0
  Standard Deviation 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4