forthcoming>>
Special Surveys in February include Trends in Productivity and Wages (CF and CF-USA) and Economic Policy Evaluation (LACF).
In March we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe and Asia Pacific economies.
In April we poll for Long-Term 5-10 year forecasts for the G7, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies; those for Eastern Europe feature in March.
The April edition of Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts includes a Special Analysis of Seasonal Commodity Price Patterns.
In June we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies. Eastern Europe quarterlies feature in May.
In our July surveys, we evaluate global monetary and fiscal policy conditions and assess likely policy directions over the next 12 months.
The July edition of Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts will feature a Special Survey on Factors Affecting Commodity Prices.
In September we poll for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe and Asia Pacific economies.
In October we survey for Long-Term 5-10 year forecasts for the G7, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies; those for Eastern Europe feature in September.
Our November publications focus on forecasts for Real Interest Rates and Corporate Profits, as well as Foreign Direct Investment in Asia Pacific.
In December we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies.
In January,Consensus Economics surveys panellists for their 2012 and 2013 forecasts, as well as the risks associated with non-consensus outcomes.
A Balanced Approach
For several decades, journalists and researchers have been collecting and combining economic and financial forecasts using surveys. For our Consensus Forecasts™ publications we ask the world's leading forecasters for their predictions for more than 1,000 variables from over 85 nations in Industrialised Countries, Eastern Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America. Incoming survey responses are then processed using proprietary software and checked for accuracy, completeness and integrity. For the principal countries covered, our publications show the estimates of individual panellists for each economic indicator, along with the mean average.
The table below shows a small sample of the data from Consensus Forecasts™ for the United States (in this case, from our July 11, 2011 survey).
| Forecasters For The United States |
Gross Domestic Product |
Consumer Price Inflation |
||
| % change over previous year | 2011 | 2012 | 2011 | 2012 |
| Ford Motor Company | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| Morgan Stanley | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.3 |
| First Trust Advisors | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| RDQ Economics | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.9 |
| UBS | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| Wells Capital Mgmt | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| General Motors | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| Moody's Analytics | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.9 |
| Standard & Poor's | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| DuPont | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Univ of Michigan - RSQE | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.9 |
| Macroeconomic Advisers | 2.5 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| Nat Assn of Home Builders | 2.5 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| Barclays Capital | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.5 |
| Citigroup | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| IHS Global Insight | 2.5 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| Credit Suisse | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
| Goldman Sachs | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.1 |
| Swiss Re | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| Econ Intelligence Unit | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| JP Morgan | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| Bank of America - Merrill | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| Fannie Mae | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| Inforum - Univ of Maryland | 2.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.6 |
| Northern Trust | 2.4 | na | 3.1 | na |
| Oxford Economics | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
| Wells Fargo | 2.3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| Eaton Corporation | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| Georgia State University | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.4 |
| The Conference Board | 2.2 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 |
| Consensus (Average) | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
| Last Month's Mean | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| 3 Months Ago | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| High | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| Low | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| Standard Deviation | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 |