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Special Surveys in February include Trends in Productivity and Wages (CF and CF-USA) and Economic Policy Evaluation (LACF).
In March we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe and Asia Pacific economies.
In April we poll for Long-Term 5-10 year forecasts for the G7, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies; those for Eastern Europe feature in March.
The April edition of Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts includes a Special Analysis of Seasonal Commodity Price Patterns.
In June we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies. Eastern Europe quarterlies feature in May.
In our July surveys, we evaluate global monetary and fiscal policy conditions and assess likely policy directions over the next 12 months.
The July edition of Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts will feature a Special Survey on Factors Affecting Commodity Prices.
In September we poll for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe and Asia Pacific economies.
In October we survey for Long-Term 5-10 year forecasts for the G7, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies; those for Eastern Europe feature in September.
Our November publications focus on forecasts for Real Interest Rates and Corporate Profits, as well as Foreign Direct Investment in Asia Pacific.
In December we survey for Quarter-by-Quarter Forecasts for the G7, Western Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin American economies.
In January,Consensus Economics surveys panellists for their 2012 and 2013 forecasts, as well as the risks associated with non-consensus outcomes.
Significant Changes in the Consensus - January 9, 2012
The
first Significant Changes analysis of the year focuses on the 2012 outlook
for Real GDP and Consumer Price Inflation as well as a
first look at 2013 projections for the US, Euro area, Japan, Germany
and the UK. As the chart (right) illustrates, the outlook
for most G-7 economies has worsened noticeably. Indeed, the GDP consensus
for the Euro zone is falling further into negative territory
this month. This follows contagion from the debt crisis in the Euro area
periphery spreading to core countries like France and Italy.
These economies are especially dependent on each other in terms of investment
and trade, hence partly why expectations have deteriorated so quickly. With
GDP forecast to contract this year, the outlook for public indebtedness
has only worsened, further endangering the unity of the European project.
Gross Domestic |
Historical Data | 2013 Forecast | Consensus Forecasts for 2012 from Survey of: | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * % change on previous year | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Aug.'11 | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan.'12 | |
| United States |
-3.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Euro zone | -4.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
| Japan | -5.5 | 4.5 | -0.8 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Germany | -5.1 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| United Kingdom | -4.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
Even
Germany, the region’s powerhouse economy, recently contracted
by 0.25% (q-o-q) in Q4, though GDP forecasts have been plunging over the
past six months in anticipation of a marked slowdown. The UK
has also seen a sharp drop in expectations, due to both European turmoil
and the impact of domestic austerity measures. The US and
Japan stand somewhat apart from the trend in European forecasts.
While the Japanese GDP outlook has been weakening gradually over the past
five months, the economy is still projected to expand by just under 2% growth
this year. The rebound follows last year’s earthquake/tsunami disaster.
US estimates, meanwhile, have shown some improvement of
late on the back of firming industrial output and labour market data. So
far, the economy is expected to be one of the G7’s best performers (relatively
speaking) in 2012.
Consumer Price Inflation* |
Historical Data | 2013 Forecast | Consensus Forecasts for 2012 from Survey of: | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * % change on previous year | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Aug.'11 | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan.'12. | |
| United States |
-0.3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Euro zone | 0.3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Japan | -1.3 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| Germany | 0.4 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
|
United Kingdom |
2.2 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
Taken from G-7 and Western Europe Consensus Forecasts, January 2012.