           |
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Significant
Changes in the Consensus - October 12, 2009
 |
With a modest global revival underway, marked upgrades to Asia Pacific growth forecasts for this year and next in our October survey signal that the regional recovery is gaining pace. China is expected to lead the upturn with growth of 8.4% this year. This comes in spite of continued y-o-y declines in exports. Still, industrial production rose at its fastest pace in a year in August and domestic demand remains firm, buoyed by Beijing's record fiscal stimulus measures. Elsewhere, similar fiscal support packages launched by governments in neighbouring countries are also starting to bear fruit. Indeed, the second quarter GDP release in New Zealand showed that the economy resumed positive q-o-q growth of 0.1% after five quarters of contraction. In the Philippines, meanwhile, the global slowdown has failed to dampen remittance inflows from overseas workers which, along with a rise in government spending, have provided support to the consumption outlook.
| Gross Domestic Product* |
Historical
Data |
Consensus Forecasts for
2009 from Survey of: |
2010 |
| *
% change on previous year |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
May '09 |
Jun. |
Jul. |
Aug. |
Sep. |
Oct. |
Consensus Forecast |
China
|
11.6 |
13.0 |
9.0 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
7.7 |
8.3 |
8.3 |
8.4 |
9.5 |
| Hong Kong |
7.0 |
6.4 |
2.4 |
-3.5 |
-4.6 |
-4.3 |
-4.0 |
-3.4 |
-3.1 |
3.7 |
| New Zealand |
1.9 |
3.2
|
0.0 |
-1.8 |
-2.1 |
-2.2 |
-2.0 |
-2.1 |
-1.3 |
2.2 |
| Philippines |
5.3 |
7.1
|
3.8 |
1.9 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
3.6 |
| Singapore |
8.4 |
7.8
|
1.1 |
-7.5 |
-7.0 |
-5.6 |
-5.1 |
-4.1 |
-2.6 |
5.3 |
 |
Real GDP growth expectations have now risen to 1.6% for this year and 3.6% for next. Recovering domestic demand throughout the region will no doubt bode well for small open economies like Singapore. Indeed, the 2009 growth forecast has seen a major upgrade this month on the back of the improving outlook for industrial production. Still, 2009 growth is expected to remain in negative territory. On the plus side, this year's recession has kept inflation at bay, with numerous countries reporting negative CPI readings in recent months. However, given next year's more vigorous recoveries, consumer price forecasts for 2010 are also moving upwards. Rising inflationary pressures suggest that policymakers will have to consider reversing some of the large monetary and fiscal stimulus measures enacted earlier this year.
| Consumer Price Inflation* |
Historical
Data |
Consensus Forecasts for
2009 from Survey of: |
2010 |
| *
% change on previous year |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
May '09 |
Jun. |
Jul. |
Aug. |
Sep. |
Oct. |
Consensus Forecast |
China
|
1.5 |
4.8 |
5.9 |
-0.1 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
-0.5 |
-0.6 |
-0.6 |
2.4 |
| Hong Kong |
2.1 |
2.0 |
4.3 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
1.7 |
| New Zealand |
3.4 |
2.4
|
4.0 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
1.7 |
| Philippines |
6.2 |
2.8
|
9.3 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
4.4 |
| Singapore |
1.0 |
2.1
|
6.5 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
1.6 |
|
