ECONOMIC FORECAST PROBABILITIES
In addition to their regular forecasts for the major economic indicators, each January we survey our panelists for their predictions of how the various economies are most likely to perform over a given time horizon. We undertake special surveys of economic forecast probabilities across our publications Consensus Forecasts, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts.
This special survey aims to assess the risk of these other 'non-consensus' outcomes, which range wider than a simple examination of the highest and lowest central forecasts would suggest. In order to do this we asked our panelists to assess the probability that the variables covered would fall within the ranges displayed in the partial sample tables below, which allowed us to compile some rough probability distributions to identify those areas of greatest uncertainty in the economic outlook. The ranges themselves differ from country to country and from variable to variable, but were set so that the central range (the middle column in the tables and charts) encompassed the consensus forecast from last month's survey. The width of all of the ranges was chosen to reflect the standard deviation of central forecasts for each variable. The ranges are wider for those variables for which the economic outlook is most uncertain.
| Consensus Forecasts | Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts | Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts |
|---|---|---|
| United States | Australia | Czech Republic |
| Japan | China | Hungary |
| Germany | Hong Kong | Poland |
| France | India | Russia |
| United Kingdom | Indonesia | Turkey |
| Italy | Japan | Bulgaria |
| Canada | Malaysia | Croatia |
| Euro zone | New Zealand | Estonia |
| Philippines | Latvia | |
| Singapore | Lithuania | |
| South Korea | Romania | |
| Taiwan | Slovakia | |
| Thailand | Slovenia | |
| Ukraine |
Download Sample Issues
The table below shows a small portion of the data from one of our surveys of economic forecast probabilities (from our January 2010 Consensus Forecasts survey).
| UNITED STATES | |||||||
|
GDP Growth, % 2010 consensus = +2.9% % Probability |
< -0.2 1 |
-0.2 to +0.9 5 |
+1.0 to +2.1 16 |
+2.2 to +3.3 46 |
+3.4 to +4.5 26 |
+4.6 to +5.7 6 |
> +5.7 1 |
| Consumer
Price Inflation 2010 consensus = +2.2% % probability |
< -0.2 1 |
-0.2 to +0.7 6 |
+0.8 to +1.7 26 |
+1.8 to +2.7 47 |
+2.8 to +3.7 16 |
+3.8 to +4.7 3 |
> +4.7 1 |
| Current
Account, US$bn 2010 consensus = -$504bn % probability |
< -809 0 |
-809 to -679 5 |
-678 to -549 21 |
-548 to -419 40 |
-418 to -289 27 |
-288 to -158 6 |
> -158 0 |
Following a grim year where the United States experienced arguably its worst
recession of the post-WW2 period, observers are now focusing on the long-awaited
recovery. The pressing issue, however, is how strong – or weak –
the revival will be. Judging by the chart (below), our US panel’s
confidence is somewhat skewed towards a postive surprise, with respondents
assigning a 33% probability to growth exceeding 3.3% this year (the consensus
averages 2.9%). The depth of the 2009 downturn has been such that a relatively
robust rebound was perhaps inevitable; however, compared with the other
G-7 economies featured, no other panel is assigning so significant a probability
to GDP growth of above 3%.
A portion of the text from Consensus Forecasts, January 11, 2010