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In the New Year, Consensus Economics will be surveying panellists for their 2010 Forecast Probabilities to assess the risk of non-consensus outcomes.
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Historical Data and Monthly Updates
Most of the survey data from each of our four regional publications can be received in Excel spreadsheet format by email under license from Consensus Economics. The historical spreadsheet services include forecasts from our previous monthly surveys dating back as far as October 1989 plus, at the user's option, a one-year subscription to the future monthly spreadsheet updates by e-mail, including a mailed hard copy of the publication going forward. These four services (below) allow back-testing of forecast accuracy and modelling of country indicator expectations.
Consensus Forecasts® - G-7 and other Industrialised countries - Monthly since October 1989;
Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts® - Monthly since January 1995;
Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts® - Bi-monthly (alternate months) between May 1998 and April 2007 and monthly thereafter; and
Latin American Consensus Forecasts® - Bi-monthly (alternate months) between March 1993 and April 2001 and monthly thereafter.
A flexible TrendCharts feature enabling easy graphic display of the trends in the Consensus over time has been added to each of the regional spreadsheet services beginning in late 2006.
TrendCharts Feature - As Available in Each of the Four Regional Excel Spreadsheet services
Each Monthly file includes:
- Individual and consensus forecasts (mean, high, low and standard deviation) for all of the major countries and indicators as covered monthly in the above publications.
- Consensus forecasts (mean only) for 3 or 4 variables for each of the "Additional Countries" as covered monthly in the above publications.
- Exchange rate forecasts (mean only) for each of the currencies featured in the exchange rate pages of the above publications.
- West Texas Intermediate oil price forecasts (mean, high, low and standard deviation) for the forthcoming 3- and 12-month periods, along with the survey date actual spot price.
- A separate Excel workbook tab devoted to the TrendCharts feature which enables easy graphic display of trends in the consensus over time.
An important feature of the spreadsheet format is that the corresponding variables for each country are placed in the same column in each monthly spreadsheet, while the consensus figures for any given country always appear in the same row. The date of the survey is also shown.
It is important to note, however, that the Significant Changes in the Consensus feature (page 2 of the hard copy publication), the special surveys (which begin on page 3), the summary table (back page of the hard copy), all historical data, comparison forecasts, charts and text commentaries are not included in the spreadsheets. Variables covered for some countries may change occasionally, often due to country practice (we have a record of these).
Excel spreadsheet data is delivered to clients of this service by e-mail on the day the publications are printed. Further details can be obtained by contacting Consensus Economics. Prices (which include a hard copy subscription) are as shown below. Certain UK and European Union subscribers to these services may also be charged Value Added Tax.
Consensus Forecasts (G-7 and other industrialised countries) - US$6580 or £3725 or €5280 (excluding VAT, if applicable), of which: historical data only US$4900 or £2700 or €3800; future monthly updates - US$1680 or £1025 or €1480 per year.
Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts - US$4288 or £2408 or €3398 (excluding VAT, if applicable), of which: historical data only US$2609 or £1379 or €1909; future monthly updates - US$1679 or £1029 or €1489 per year.
Latin American Consensus Forecasts - US$4306 or £2426 or €3426 (excluding VAT, if applicable), of which: historical data only US$2803 or £1493 or €2093; future monthly updates - US$1503 or £933 or €1333 per year.
Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts - US$3114 or £1694 or €2394 (excluding VAT, if applicable), of which: historical data only - US$1657 or £847 or €1197; future monthly updates - US$1457 or £847 or €1197 per year.
In addition to receiving the historical and current survey data directly from Consensus Economics, these databases are also available as premium services, on CEIC Data, on FactSet and on Thomson Financial Datastream electronic research platforms. For further information about these services, please contact Consensus Economics.