MARCH 2012
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012
Page 1 of 2
1.5
1.8
-0.3
0.6
6.3
6.6
-3.0
-5.0
1.5
1.5
3.5
3.6
3.1
3.5
3.5
4.2
3.0
3.5
1.4
2.8
1.2
1.5
1.7
7.1
na
na
0.1
3.4
3.6
3.2
3.1
2.5
2.8
6.4
2.7
2.9
1.4
2.0
0.3
1.6
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
3.2
2.2
na
na
4.1
3.8
1.2
2.3
1.6
2.0
-1.0
5.5
na
na
na
na
3.6
2.6
2.4
1.8
na
na
2.0
2.5
1.0
1.6
0.8
1.5
2.6
3.8
2.8
3.0
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
2.6
2.9
0.9
2.2
0.7
2.4
-0.9
9.0
na
na
-0.3
2.9
3.3
3.0
2.9
2.0
na
na
3.6
3.4
0.9
2.0
0.0
1.5
1.2
3.5
5.3
3.8
0.6
1.3
3.5
3.1
2.7
2.1
2.6
3.4
2.3
2.8
0.9
1.7
0.0
1.1
2.1
6.6
na
na
0.8
1.0
3.3
2.3
2.7
1.8
3.4
2.1
2.8
3.6
0.9
1.8
1.0
1.8
-0.7
4.3
na
na
-0.1
0.5
3.4
3.3
2.9
2.5
2.5
1.9
2.5
2.9
0.8
1.6
1.0
1.7
0.0
4.2
na
na
0.5
2.1
3.4
2.6
2.8
2.0
3.0
2.3
2.4
2.9
0.8
1.9
0.7
1.7
-1.6
6.4
na
na
na
na
3.2
2.8
2.5
1.9
2.0
1.9
na
na
0.7
2.4
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.5
na
na
na
na
0.6
2.1
0.3
1.9
0.8
4.7
na
na
0.2
2.7
na
na
2.5
1.9
na
na
na
na
0.5
2.0
0.5
1.9
-0.3
5.0
na
na
0.6
2.4
3.1
3.0
2.6
2.1
na
na
2.1
2.5
0.5
1.7
0.5
1.4
-0.5
3.6
2.3
4.4
0.0
1.8
2.7
2.2
2.4
1.5
1.3
1.4
2.1
2.3
0.4
1.5
0.0
0.5
0.2
2.1
5.0
3.0
1.0
na
2.6
na
2.3
1.5
3.5
na
2.0
2.3
0.4
1.5
0.1
1.5
0.9
4.5
na
na
-0.3
3.2
2.9
2.0
2.8
1.8
na
na
2.0
3.3
0.3
na
0.5
na
-0.4
na
na
na
-0.1
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
0.2
1.2
-0.2
1.0
na
na
na
na
-0.4
1.3
3.1
2.2
2.9
3.2
na
na
na
na
0.2
1.8
0.2
1.4
0.4
4.8
2.0
6.0
0.3
4.0
2.6
2.3
2.3
1.9
2.8
2.5
1.9
2.8
0.2
1.2
0.0
-0.1
1.6
5.4
na
na
-0.8
1.4
2.4
2.2
2.3
1.9
na
na
1.0
2.0
0.2
1.0
0.5
1.6
-7.5
-8.5
8.8
6.5
0.3
1.1
2.8
2.3
2.4
1.9
na
na
2.4
1.7
0.0
1.5
0.5
1.8
2.0
3.7
na
na
-1.7
0.8
3.3
2.5
2.9
2.1
2.8
2.6
3.0
3.4
-0.1
2.3
0.2
1.4
-5.8
3.9
na
na
na
na
2.6
1.8
2.2
1.4
na
na
na
na
-0.5
0.5
-1.5
1.0
2.5
5.0
-5.0
-1.0
-1.3
-1.8
2.9
1.8
2.5
1.2
1.0
2.0
1.6
1.5
0.6
1.8
0.4
1.4
0.2
4.3
2.3
2.6
0.0
1.7
3.1
2.6
2.7
2.1
2.6
2.8
2.4
2.8
0.5
1.8
0.2
1.5
1.5
4.3
1.7
2.6
0.0
1.8
3.0
2.6
2.6
2.0
2.3
2.7
2.5
2.8
0.7
0.4
2.4
1.5
0.9
3.2
2.7
2.8
2.5
1.5
2.8
1.6
2.4
6.3
9.0
8.8
6.5
1.5
4.0
3.6
3.6
3.2
3.5
3.5
6.4
4.1
3.8
-0.5
0.5
-1.5
-0.1
-7.5
-8.5
-5.0
-5.0
-1.7
-1.8
2.4
1.8
2.2
1.2
1.0
1.4
1.0
1.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
2.8
3.3
4.5
3.8
0.8
1.4
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.8
1.4
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.2
3.5
3.4
3.3
2.7
0.6
1.5
-0.5
0.8
1.1
2.9
0.6
2.0
0.5
1.8
0.5
2.0
-0.9
2.7
1.3
Economic Perspectives
Beacon Econ Forecasting
Liverpool Macro Research
Goldman Sachs
Lombard Street Research
Barclays Capital
Confed of British Industry
RBS Financial Markets
Nomura
IHS Global Insight
JP Morgan
Credit Suisse
Bank of America - Merrill
HSBC
Oxford Economics
Societe Generale
Experian
Cambridge Econometrics
Econ Intelligence Unit
ITEM Club
Schroders
Citigroup
Deutsche Bank
NIESR
Capital Economics
Consensus ( Mean)
Last Month's Mean
3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation
Comparison Forecasts
Treasury - OBR (Nov. '11)
Eur Commission (Nov. '11)
IMF (Jan. ' 12)
OECD (Nov. ' 11)
Gross Domestic Product*
Household Consumption*
Gross Fixed Investment*
Company Trading Profits*
Manufacturing Production*
Retail Prices (RPI-X)*
Consumer Prices Index (HICP)*
Output Prices*
Average Weekly Earnings*
Unemployment Rate %
Current Account, GBP bn
Public Sector Net Borrowing (excl. financial interventions),
fiscal yrs, GBP bn
3 mth Interbank, % (end yr)
10 Yr Gilt Yields, % (end yr)
Historical Data
Gross Domestic Product
Retail
Prices (RPI-
X, underly-
ing rate)
UNITED KINGDOM
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Government and Background Data
Prime Minister - David Cameron (Conservatives). Parliament -
Conservatives have formed a coalition with Liberal Democrats
,with a working majority in the 650-seat House of Commons (lower
house). Next Election - By May 2015 (general election). Nominal GDP
- GBP1,454bn (2010). Population - 61.9mn (mid-year, 2010).
$/GBP ExchangeRate - 1.545 (average, 2010).
Company Trading Prodfits
Economic Forecasters
* % change on previous year
Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year
Gross Fixed
Investment
Manufactur-
ing
Produc-
tion
Output Prices
Average Weekly Earnings
Household Consump-
tion
Consumer
Prices
Index
(HICP)
2008
2009
2010
2011
-1.1
-4.4
2.1
0.8
-1.4
-3.5
1.2
-0.8
-4.8
-13.4
3.1
-1.7
-4.7
-6.6
-1.0
8.0
e
-2.6
-9.6
3.7
2.2
4.3
2.0
4.8
5.3
3.6
2.2
3.3
4.5
6.7
1.5
4.2
5.6
3.5
0.0
2.2
2.3
2.8
4.7
4.7
4.8
-19.8
-20.3
-48.6
-33.9
e
68.2
152
145
123
2.6
0.7
0.8
1.1
3.0
4.0
3.6
2.1
Percentage Change (year-on-year).
Gross Domestic Product
Household Consumption
Consumer Price (HICP)
Quarterly Consensus Forecasts
Historical Data and Forecasts (bold italics) From Survey of
March 12, 2012
2011
2012
2013
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.9
1.1
1.7
1.7
2.0
-1.3
-0.6
-0.1
0.3
0.8
0.7
1.0
1.4
1.4
1.7
4.7
4.7
3.3
2.9
2.5
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
e = consensus estimate based on latest survey
2012 2013
2012 2013
2012 2013
2012 2013
2012 2013
2012 2013
2012 2013
2012 2013
2012 2013