AUGUST 2013
Page 1 of 2
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2013
FACTORS AFFECTING EXCHANGE RATES
In this month's special survey, we asked our panellists to rank the current importance of a range of different factors in determining exchange rate movements (against the US dollar, unless otherwise noted). Scores were assigned to each of the factors shown in the table below on a scale of 0 (no influence) to 10 (very strong influence). The consensus results are the averages of individual panellists' scores for each factor. Given that different currencies are influenced by a wide range of factors, we have limited the variables considered to a common list of six factors which we asked our panels to assess for every currency. In addition, we asked panellists to suggest, and rank, other factors which they felt to be of particular importance. The most frequently cited (if any) of these for each currency appears in the right-hand column.
Consensus Ranking of Exchange Rate Determinants
Exchange rates per US$,
unless otherwise noted
*
Analysis refers to determinants of the exchange rate against the euro.
Short
Long
(Scores: 0 = No influence. 10 = Very Strong Influence)
Relative Growth
Inflation Differential
Trade/
Current Account
Equity Flows
G-7 & Western Europe
Euro
6.3
4.7
6.3
7.7
6.7
4.7
6.0
Sovereign Debt Risks
Japanese Yen
6.0
5.0
6.3
7.3
6.7
4.7
7.2
Quantitative Easing
UK Pound
7.7
5.0
5.7
8.3
6.7
4.3
Canadian Dollar
5.3
5.0
7.0
6.7
6.7
3.3
7.0
Commodity Prices
Norwegian Krone*
7.0
6.0
6.0
8.5
8.0
5.0
7.0
Oil Prices
Swedish Krona*
6.7
5.0
5.0
8.0
6.7
4.0
Swiss Franc*
4.3
5.3
6.0
6.3
5.3
4.0
8.0
Safe Haven Inflows
8.0
Central Bank FX Policy
Asia Pacific
Australian Dollar
7.3
4.5
5.8
8.2
6.8
4.4
7.0
Commodity Prices (chart)
7.0
China Growth
Indonesian Rupiah
6.5
7.8
8.5
6.5
6.0
5.4
Malaysian Ringgit
7.0
5.3
6.0
7.0
6.5
6.4
New Zealand Dollar
7.0
4.5
6.0
8.3
6.8
4.3
8.0
Commodity Prices
Philippine Peso
8.3
5.5
6.3
6.3
6.0
6.2
South Korean Won
7.3
5.0
5.5
6.3
6.0
7.3
Singapore Dollar
7.5
6.3
5.5
5.5
5.3
6.5
8.0
Implicit FX Management
Taiwan Dollar
7.3
5.0
6.3
6.3
5.5
6.0
Thai Baht
8.0
5.0
6.3
6.5
6.3
6.4
Eastern Europe
Czech Koruna*
6.7
5.0
4.3
6.7
6.7
4.0
8.0
FX Intervention
Hungarian Forint*
8.0
6.0
4.5
7.5
7.5
4.5
Polish Zloty*
6.3
4.7
4.7
7.3
7.0
4.7
8.0
FX Intervention
Russian Rouble
8.0
6.0
5.0
7.5
7.5
4.5
Turkish Lira
5.0
3.0
5.0
5.0
2.0
7.0
Latin America
Argentinian Peso
7.7
6.0
6.7
6.5
6.0
3.3
8.0
Currency Management
Brazilian Real
8.0
6.3
5.3
7.7
6.7
6.7
Chilean Peso
7.7
4.3
6.7
5.3
5.3
5.3
8.0
Copper Prices (chart)
8.0
Presidential Election
Colombian Peso
7.7
5.3
6.0
6.3
6.3
5.7
Mexican Peso
8.0
6.0
5.7
7.0
7.0
6.7
10.0
Structural Reforms
Peruvian Sol
7.0
4.5
6.0
7.0
7.0
8.0
8.0
FX Intervention
Venezuelan Bolivar
7.0
8.0
7.0
0.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Gov. FX Policy & Controls
9.0
Oil Prices
Israeli Shekel
6.0
3.0
4.0
6.0
5.0
6.0
South African Rand
3.8
4.0
6.0
5.0
4.5
5.3
8.0
US Fed Tapering
7.5
Bond Inflows
Interest Rate Differential
-------- Other Factors ---------
Score
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