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MARCH 2012
Copyright Consensus EconomicsInc. 2012
2071.6
2413.5
150.5
142.0
295.0
291.2
-905.5
-918.4
6.6
6.6
1929.6
2257.5
161.9
210.6
209.7
220.9
na
na
na
na
1943.7
2215.8
112.3
86.9
210.0
190.0
-993.7
-944.0
6.6
6.3
1988.4
2372.2
97.9
68.8
105.0
83.0
na
na
na
na
1851.6
2184.9
153.5
121.0
235.1
200.0
-450.0
-300.0
6.6
6.1
1962.4
2256.8
110.0
74.6
179.7
159.2
-550.0
-600.0
6.6
6.8
1970.1
2226.2
118.4
112.9
203.2
211.5
na
na
na
na
1898.1
2201.4
108.0
65.3
167.8
145.9
na
na
na
na
1970.2
na
118.3
na
na
na
-900.0
na
6.6
na
1867.3
2224.5
190.4
193.7
226.2
224.5
-769.9
-1164.6
na
na
1895.1
2091.2
209.1
306.7
261.7
343.7
-1056.4
-1126.6
6.1
6.0
1920.0
2230.0
163.0
145.0
273.0
247.0
na
na
6.6
6.6
2005.0
2365.9
83.5
35.8
na
na
na
na
na
na
2109.6
2510.5
35.8
-21.8
na
na
na
na
na
na
1920.8
2197.2
126.2
99.1
165.1
147.8
-1394.6
-1171.8
na
na
1991.3
2224.1
100.8
93.2
258.3
247.9
-734.1
-494.1
6.6
6.6
1966.7
2310.8
118.0
149.1
193.0
224.5
-800.0
-1086.8
6.6
6.6
1965.2
2201.0
121.4
94.2
30.0
210.0
-550.0
-700.0
6.6
6.6
2022.5
2346.1
98.3
8.0
138.0
93.0
-600.0
-850.0
6.3
6.6
1960.5
2268.3
125.1
110.3
209.4
202.5
-808.7
-850.6
6.5
6.5
1969.0
2289.2
128.5
115.6
219.3
220.5
-914.7
-975.0
1957.0
123.7
222.8
-958.1
2109.6
2510.5
209.1
306.7
295.0
343.7
-450.0
-300.0
6.6
6.8
1851.6
2091.2
35.8
-21.8
105.0
83.0
-1394.6
-1171.8
6.1
6.0
64.8
100.1
39.6
76.4
50.8
67.2
264.6
293.7
0.2
0.3
2059.5
2368.4
128.9
82.6
190.0
130.0
-800.0
-900.0
6.6
6.6
431.6
535.1
2005.0
121.4
-800.0
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
2011
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012
Jan Feb Mar
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
-10
110
230
350
470
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
Real GDP Growth and Inflation
Real GDP (% chg y-o-y)
Current Account Balance
(US$bn)
Trade Balance
(fob-cif,
US$bn)
Merchandise Imports
(cif, US$bn)
%
CHINA
Annual Total
2012
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2013
Current Account Balance
Trade Balance
US$bn
Consensus
Forecasts
Central Government Budget
(Rmb bn)
1-year Base Lending Rate for Working Capital (%)
Rate on
Survey Date
End
Jun'12
Direction of Trade - 2010
United States
17.9
Hong Kong
13.8
Japan
7.6
South Korea
4.4
Japan
12.6
South Korea
9.9
United States
7.3
Germany
5.3
Major Export Markets
(% of Total)
Major Import Suppliers
(% of Total)
6.6%
Target Reduced But Forecasts Unchanged for 2012

At the opening of the National People's Congress earlier this month, Premier Wen Jiabao announced that economic growth for this year will be targeted at 7.5%. Since 2005 the official growth target has been kept at 8.0% even though the economy has consistently overshot this figure for the past seven years. However, Beijing's decision to lower its annual growth target from its long-standing 8.0% figure signals the government's acknowledgement that the economy's frenetic pace of expansion enjoyed in the past is no longer sustainable. The government is also revisiting plans to shift growth towards domestic consumption and away from investment and exports. The move to rebalance China's growth composition has been a long-standing goal for the government even though it was forced to delay such plans during the financial crisis of 2008/09. With most Western economies facing sluggish growth or recession, there is added incentive for the authorities to reduce China's reliance on export industries. In a bid to boost domestic demand this year, Mr Wen outlined government support for the elderly and plans to improve its healthcare system. On top of that, the authorities plan to boost the minimum wage and expand consumer credit, while hoping to encourage consumer spending on a range of recreational activities. Despite the downgrade to the official growth target, consensus growth expectations have barely changed this month at 8.4%. This probably reflects the fact that most analysts are still confident China will continue to beat the official growth target.

Meanwhile, consumer price increases moderated from 4.5% (y-o-y) in January to 3.2% last month, thanks to a sharp slowdown in food inflation.

Trade and Current Account Balances
GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts
Consensus Forecasts
from Survey of:
%
2012 Consumer Price Inflation Forecasts (%) - left scale
2012 Real GDP Growth Forecasts (%) - right scale
Consumer Prices (% chg y-o-y)
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Consensus
Forecasts
End
Mar'13
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