1-year Base Lending Rate for Working Capital (%, year end)
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MARCH 2012
ING
Goldman Sachs Asia
HSBC Economics
BofA - Merrill Lynch
Bank of China (HK)
BNP Paribas
UBS
Citigroup
China Int'l Capital Corp
JP Morgan Chase
Oxford Economics
Deutsche Bank
Hang Seng Bank
Bank of East Asia
Econ Intelligence Unit
IHS Global Insight
Barclays Capital
Societe Generale
Nomura
Consensus (Mean)
Last Month's Mean
3 Months Ago
High
Low
Standard Deviation
Comparison Forecasts
Asian Development
Bank (Sep. '11)
Chinese Academy of
Social Science (Mar. '12)
IMF (Sep. '11)
OECD (Nov. '11)
State Info. Ctr. (Feb. '12)
Quarterly Consensus Forecasts
Historical Data and Forecasts (bold italics) From Survey of
March 12, 2012
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q3
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Gross Domestic Pruduct*
9.1
8.9
8.2
8.2
8.4
8.5
8.7
8.6
8.5
8.3
Consumer Prices*
6.3
63.8
48.1
4.6
3.8
3.3
31.6
48.3
46.6
-14.1
24.6
40.3
26.7
2.9
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.4
Trade Balance
-2.8
(US$bn)
Historical Data
Consumer Prices (Nationwide)
Producer Price Index for Manufactured goods
Money Supply (M2)
Retail Sales (Nominal)
Economic Forecasters
Merchandise Exports
(fob, US$bn)
End Year,
% change
Fixed Asset Investment (Nominal)
Industrial Production (Value Added of Industry)
CHINA
Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year
Gross Domestic Prouct (Real)
2012
2012
2013
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
*Percentage Change (year-on-year)
Government and Background Data
President - Hu Jintao Prime Minister - Wen Jiabao. Government -
Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which elects a State Council com-
prising a premier and ministers. Next Party Elections - At the 2008
National People's Congress, both the president and prime minister were
re-elected for a second five-year term, which expires in March 2013.
Nominal GDP - Rmb39,798bn (2010). Population - 1.4bn mid-year
2010). Renminbi/US$ Exchange Rate - 6.770 (average, 2010).
2011
2012
Annual Total
* % change on previous year
2008
2009
2010
2011
Gross Domestic Product (real)*
9.6
9.2
10.4
9.2
Retail Sales (nominal)*
22.7
15.5
18.4
17.1
Fixed Asset Inv. (nominal)*
25.9
30.0
24.5
23.8
Industrial Production (real)*
12.9
11.0
15.7
13.9
(Value Added of Industry)
Consumer Prices (Nationwide)*
5.9
-0.7
3.3
5.4
Producer Price Index for
6.9
-5.4
5.5
6.0
e
Manufactured Goods*
Money Supply (M2), end year*
17.8
27.6
19.7
13.6
Merch. Exports (fob, US$ bn)
1430.7
1201.6
1577.9
1898.6
Merch. Imports (cif, US$bn)
1132.6
1005.9
1394.8
1743.5
Trade Balance (fob-cif, US$bn)
298.1
196.1
183.1
155.1
Current Account Bal. (US$bn)
-111.0
-739.7
-1050
412.4
261.1
305.4
221.0
e
Central Gov. Budgt. Bal. (Rmb bn)
-519.0
5.3
5.3
5.8
6.6
2013
8.7
8.7
16.5
16.0
23.0
23.0
12.5
12.5
3.0
3.0
3.5
4.0
15.0
15.0
2222.2
2555.5
8.6
8.7
17.0
na
na
na
13.1
14.5
3.1
2.1
na
na
15.2
na
2091.5
2468.2
8.6
8.8
17.0
18.0
19.0
19.0
12.5
13.2
2.9
2.9
2.7
5.0
15.5
16.0
2056.0
2302.7
8.6
8.5
na
na
na
na
na
na
3.5
4.0
na
na
14.0
14.0
2086.3
2441.0
8.5
8.5
17.0
21.0
20.0
20.0
13.5
14.0
4.0
3.5
4.9
4.3
14.0
13.0
2005.1
2305.9
8.5
8.7
15.5
16.6
18.5
20.3
12.1
12.3
3.6
4.1
2.1
4.5
14.5
14.4
2072.4
2331.4
8.5
8.5
na
na
na
na
na
na
3.5
4.0
na
na
14.0
13.0
2088.5
2339.1
8.4
8.6
na
na
na
na
11.6
12.2
3.5
3.9
na
na
14.0
14.5
2006.1
2266.7
8.4
9.0
15.3
na
19.0
na
12.3
na
3.5
na
2.0
na
12.5
na
2088.5
na
8.4
9.1
14.7
na
18.0
21.0
12.0
14.0
3.1
3.8
2.0
4.3
15.0
15.0
2057.7
2418.2
8.4
8.8
16.5
17.6
na
na
9.8
9.6
3.5
2.6
2.1
2.7
11.2
12.0
2104.2
2397.9
8.3
8.6
14.0
15.0
17.0
17.0
11.5
12.0
2.8
3.5
na
na
16.0
14.5
2083.0
2375.0
8.3
8.6
17.0
18.0
19.0
20.0
12.0
12.0
3.0
3.5
na
na
14.0
14.0
2088.5
2401.7
8.2
8.5
17.0
17.5
21.0
20.0
12.0
14.0
3.0
4.5
na
na
13.0
13.0
2145.4
2488.7
8.2
8.5
na
na
na
na
11.8
12.1
3.8
5.0
2.2
5.4
14.2
16.5
2047.1
2296.3
8.2
8.5
13.4
12.3
na
na
11.1
11.8
2.9
2.8
1.5
3.3
14.5
13.4
2092.1
2317.3
8.1
8.4
16.0
17.5
18.0
17.0
12.0
13.0
3.2
4.5
2.0
4.0
14.0
14.0
2084.7
2459.9
8.1
7.7
15.1
14.0
14.5
12.0
10.5
9.0
2.8
4.0
1.5
4.0
14.0
13.5
2086.6
2295.2
7.9
8.2
16.0
16.5
19.0
21.0
12.1
12.3
4.0
4.2
4.5
4.7
14.0
14.0
2120.7
2354.0
8.4
8.6
15.9
16.7
18.8
19.1
11.9
12.4
3.3
3.7
2.6
4.2
14.1
14.1
2085.6
2378.6
8.4
8.6
16.2
16.8
19.1
19.3
11.9
12.5
3.3
3.7
2.9
4.4
14.4
14.1
2097.5
2404.8
8.3
16.4
19.5
12.0
3.5
3.5
14.6
2080.7
8.7
9.1
17.0
21.0
23.0
23.0
13.5
14.5
4.0
5.0
4.9
5.4
16.0
16.5
2222.2
2555.5
7.9
7.7
13.4
12.3
14.5
12.0
9.8
9.0
2.8
2.1
1.5
2.7
11.2
12.0
2005.1
2266.7
0.2
0.3
1.2
2.2
2.1
2.9
0.9
1.5
0.4
0.8
1.1
0.7
1.1
1.1
47.2
80.4
9.1
4.2
8.7
8.5
17.0
16.5
20.0
18.5
13.2
12.8
3.6
3.2
5.1
4.3
14.3
14.2
2188.4
2451.0
9.0
9.5
3.3
3.0
8.5
9.5
3.8
3.8
8.5
17.0
20.0
12.5
3.5
4.5
14.0
2126.4
e = consensus estimate from latest survey
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2012
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