London, June 1, 2016: Consensus Economics, the world's leading economic survey organization, has announced the recipients of its 2015 Forecast Accuracy Award (FAA). The FAA program recognises the achievements of a select group of expert country economic forecasters who have most accurately predicted the performance of GDP growth and Consumer Price Inflation for their targeted economies over a 24 month forecasting cycle.
FAA winners vary from year to year and across variables, due to shocks, surprises and cyclical and structural adjustments. However, the winners of the 2015 FAA program have been recognised for their high quality research, their commitment to regular forecasts and their ability to identify most accurately the trends and levels of key indicators over the past two years.
|Brazil||Citigroup||Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos
Leonardo Porto de Almeida
|Colombia||JP Morgan||Ben Ramsey|
|Mexico||JP Morgan||Gabriel Lozano
|Peru||Larrain Vial||Felipe Jaque
Consensus Economics collects forecasts from over 700 economists around the world each month. It was founded in 1989 to measure consensus expectations, which are seen as macroeconomic forecast benchmarks by investment and planning managers, as well as government and public sector institutions, who find the data it collects useful, timely and accurate.
Each monthly Consensus Forecasts publication shows the average (mean) forecasts, as well as individual forecaster predictions. It is distributed in hard-copy, PDF, and Excel formats, and is also available across the major statistical data platforms. Click Here to Download a Sample
Accuracy Awards - Methodology Note
The Forecasts Used The forecasts we examine are our panellists' monthly survey contributions for 2015 Real GDP growth and 2015 Consumer Price Inflation expectations (annual average % change). We began collecting these forecasts in January 2014, and stopped in December 2015, providing up to 24 monthly data points to test for each variable during each forecasting cycle.
Outturns Used The outturns we use as a comparison to the
forecasts are the official estimates of GDP, usually released 3-4
months after the final quarter of the subject year. Inflation outturns
are timelier, and usually released within one month of the year end.
The official estimates we used for the 2015 Forecast Accuracy Awards
were the most recent available as of April 2016.